According to their metrics, the upset with the highest probability of happening is SDSU over Ole Miss at 43.9% UNC over Ole Miss is the game with the 6th highest probability at 32.9%
Here's their full top 10.
1. No. 11 San Diego State* vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
Upset Chance: 43.9 percent (*This would first require San Diego State to oust North Carolina in the play-in game.)
2. No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 BYU
Upset Chance: 43.1 percent
3. No. 12 Colorado State vs. No. 5 Memphis
Upset Chance: 42.2 percent
4. No. 12 UC San Diego vs. No. 5 Michigan
Upset Chance: 37.7 percent
5. No. 11 Drake vs. No. 6 Missouri
Upset Chance: 33.7 percent
6. No. 11 North Carolina* vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
Upset Chance: 32 percent (*This would first require North Carolina to oust San Diego State in the play-in game.)
7. No. 12 Liberty vs. No. 5 Oregon
Upset Chance: 31.4 percent
8. No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 5 Clemson
Upset Chance: 30.9 percent
9. No. 13 High Point vs. No. 4 Purdue
Upset Chance: 28.4 percent
10. No. 11 Xavier* vs. No. 6 Illinois
Upset Chance: 26.9 percent (*This would first require Xavier to oust Texas in the play-in game.)
