South Carolina scored three in the first, four in the third and five in the fourth to turn this one into a laugher and win, 13-5, on Friday in Columbia. Ole Miss is now 35-12 and 12-10 in the SEC with eight league games remaining.
Another loss this weekend puts a lot of pressure on any national seed talk, as I have had 18-12 circled as the minimum necessary in the regular season to achieve that goal. Since 2002, @cbrister55 did some research that shows that every SEC national seed but one (South Carolina, 2012) won 20 total SEC games counting the regular season and Hoover (though there are a lot of times where that number has also not been a national seed). Since that's a pretty large sample size I think it's a relevant benchmark, and 18-12 in regular season and two in Hoover seem to be the most logical way to get there. The Governor's Cup counts to the committee as a league game, too, but Ole Miss lost that so it's irrelevant.
2004 South Carolina is the only national seed from the SEC to lose more than 12 regular season SEC games (out of the 30), so 17-13 is a major uphill battle. That Gamecocks team went 4-0 in Hoover.
Ole Miss has two left in Carolina, three at home against Auburn and three against Alabama. The Crimson Tide is terrible, but the opener against Auburn is daunting, as Casey Mize had 15 strikeouts and no walks in a complete game tonight and ...
... Ryan Rolison simply isn't consistent enough in SEC play. Yes, his BABIP is ridiculously high and that does mean a lack of luck, but that can be true and not be the only issue. His fastball command was spotty again tonight, and he got in too many bad counts. The ball stayed up, and he didn't effectively get to his glove side with his fastball. The breaking ball flashed at times but also wasn't consistent enough to make a difference. For Ole Miss to meet expectations the rest of the way he simply has to be better and has to give Ole Miss deep, meaningful outings with more command. He threw 30-plus pitches in two separate innings and didn't do that tonight. He's shown it at times this season but not enough that it's counted on.
Rolison is averaging 17 pitches per inning this season.
In saying that, the defense was plain bad. There were multiple plays that would have limited damage and kept thing somewhat manageable, and the players weren't made. Three errors were made, and several other 50/50 plays put Rolison into a deeper hole than deserved and effectively ended any doubt about the outcome. Carolina is hot right now, and mistakes are going to mean a loss at Founders Park.
Props to Ryan Olenek. Dude went 4-for-5 with three RBIs and two runs scored. He hit a home run and a double, has a 21-game hitting streak and is hitting .494 in league play. I don't know what the SEC games record is for batting average, but it's in trouble.
Ole Miss was fine offensively in totality. Five runs were scored on a Friday in the league on the road. The bunt call early with Kessinger up made no sense, and I'd say that even if it worked out. There was no sign to that point showing anything but a high scoring game, and Ole Miss needed runs without giving up outs. That and the missed chance to tie it at 3 with a runner at third and less than two outs were the turning points, though I'm not sure the game swings any considering the pitching.
Situationally, Ole Miss was bad offensively, and Carolina was great. Ole Miss: 6-25 runners on, 2-12 RISP, 0-3 runner on third, less than two outs. Carolina: 11-26 runners on, 8-20 RISP, 5-8 3rd/less than two outs.
I like Austin Miller. I don't know when, but he can help this program. He threw a good pitch that Vanderbilt hit into the corner a few weeks ago, and he flashed a serviceable breaking ball tonight.
A&M lost to Florida, so Ole Miss will still be in second place alone in the West. Arkansas is 13-8 and losing 4-2 to LSU in the eighth as I write this. So no major change expected, though the Razorbacks could come back and then it would be a two game deficit. But frankly all that is secondary to Ole Miss playing consistent baseball and taking care of its own business. There are benchmarks the Rebels need to hit to make compelling cases for postseason positioning and bottom line Ole Miss didn't play well enough in any of the phases tonight to accomplish that.
The good news is the bullpen is rested, and it's baseball. Games don't really carry over. LSU showed that last weekend. But Brady Feigl has never been needed more, and Ole Miss has to solve Adam Hill, who can be feisty at times.
Another loss this weekend puts a lot of pressure on any national seed talk, as I have had 18-12 circled as the minimum necessary in the regular season to achieve that goal. Since 2002, @cbrister55 did some research that shows that every SEC national seed but one (South Carolina, 2012) won 20 total SEC games counting the regular season and Hoover (though there are a lot of times where that number has also not been a national seed). Since that's a pretty large sample size I think it's a relevant benchmark, and 18-12 in regular season and two in Hoover seem to be the most logical way to get there. The Governor's Cup counts to the committee as a league game, too, but Ole Miss lost that so it's irrelevant.
2004 South Carolina is the only national seed from the SEC to lose more than 12 regular season SEC games (out of the 30), so 17-13 is a major uphill battle. That Gamecocks team went 4-0 in Hoover.
Ole Miss has two left in Carolina, three at home against Auburn and three against Alabama. The Crimson Tide is terrible, but the opener against Auburn is daunting, as Casey Mize had 15 strikeouts and no walks in a complete game tonight and ...
... Ryan Rolison simply isn't consistent enough in SEC play. Yes, his BABIP is ridiculously high and that does mean a lack of luck, but that can be true and not be the only issue. His fastball command was spotty again tonight, and he got in too many bad counts. The ball stayed up, and he didn't effectively get to his glove side with his fastball. The breaking ball flashed at times but also wasn't consistent enough to make a difference. For Ole Miss to meet expectations the rest of the way he simply has to be better and has to give Ole Miss deep, meaningful outings with more command. He threw 30-plus pitches in two separate innings and didn't do that tonight. He's shown it at times this season but not enough that it's counted on.
Rolison is averaging 17 pitches per inning this season.
In saying that, the defense was plain bad. There were multiple plays that would have limited damage and kept thing somewhat manageable, and the players weren't made. Three errors were made, and several other 50/50 plays put Rolison into a deeper hole than deserved and effectively ended any doubt about the outcome. Carolina is hot right now, and mistakes are going to mean a loss at Founders Park.
Props to Ryan Olenek. Dude went 4-for-5 with three RBIs and two runs scored. He hit a home run and a double, has a 21-game hitting streak and is hitting .494 in league play. I don't know what the SEC games record is for batting average, but it's in trouble.
Ole Miss was fine offensively in totality. Five runs were scored on a Friday in the league on the road. The bunt call early with Kessinger up made no sense, and I'd say that even if it worked out. There was no sign to that point showing anything but a high scoring game, and Ole Miss needed runs without giving up outs. That and the missed chance to tie it at 3 with a runner at third and less than two outs were the turning points, though I'm not sure the game swings any considering the pitching.
Situationally, Ole Miss was bad offensively, and Carolina was great. Ole Miss: 6-25 runners on, 2-12 RISP, 0-3 runner on third, less than two outs. Carolina: 11-26 runners on, 8-20 RISP, 5-8 3rd/less than two outs.
I like Austin Miller. I don't know when, but he can help this program. He threw a good pitch that Vanderbilt hit into the corner a few weeks ago, and he flashed a serviceable breaking ball tonight.
A&M lost to Florida, so Ole Miss will still be in second place alone in the West. Arkansas is 13-8 and losing 4-2 to LSU in the eighth as I write this. So no major change expected, though the Razorbacks could come back and then it would be a two game deficit. But frankly all that is secondary to Ole Miss playing consistent baseball and taking care of its own business. There are benchmarks the Rebels need to hit to make compelling cases for postseason positioning and bottom line Ole Miss didn't play well enough in any of the phases tonight to accomplish that.
The good news is the bullpen is rested, and it's baseball. Games don't really carry over. LSU showed that last weekend. But Brady Feigl has never been needed more, and Ole Miss has to solve Adam Hill, who can be feisty at times.
