Ole Miss found out its destination on Monday, but it wasn’t the best possible news, as the Rebels will ship across the country and face top overall seed UCLA. Check out below as I meander through some stats and thoughts on the Rebels’ draw and the overall NCAA field.
As word trickled in it was going to be UCLA, I thought back to the last time Ole Miss was sent to the No. 1 overall seed — Miami in 2008 — and there are some definite parallels between that trip and the on-paper matchup with this one. Ole Miss that year squeaked into the NCAA Tournament thanks to a run to the finals of the SEC Tournament.
Despite a lot of talent and a No. 2 national ranking a couple weeks into the season, those Rebels were a mental disaster and struggled mightily before getting a No. 3 seed in Miami. The Hurricanes were the host, Missouri was the No. 2 and Bethune-Cookman was the No. 4. Aaron Crow delivered Ole Miss a haymaker on the opening day. The Rebels eliminated BCC and Missouri the next two games and then quickly succumbed to Miami in the championship round.
I’m not predicting a result, but the matchup reminds me of that one. Miami and UCLA are both No. 1 overall seeds, though the Bruins don’t have the physical nature of those Hurricanes. 2008 Missouri and Maryland are similar teams with both having a huge arm at the top of the rotation. The four seed is irrelevant unless something very screwy happens.
The worst part of this draw for Ole Miss is the Maryland part of it because of sophomore right-hander Mike Shawaryn. He’s 12-2 with a 1.65 ERA and has 124 strikeouts and 23 walks with a .204 batting average against. I did a little digging yesterday, and he’s a fastball command guy who tries to get a lot of swing and miss off a sneaky fastball that’ll run around 90 MPH. There’s a sweeping breaking ball and not much of a changeup. He’s good. The regional in 2008 ended when Crow took the mound. Ole Miss has to avoid that this time. The Terps aren’t scary, but the Rebels were hit by a blow because of Maryland’s ace. That’s the one thing you want to avoid when matched up with a three seed.
When looking at the RPIs of teams in the field and left out of the field, it’s easily apparent that Ole Miss just dodged a lot of trouble. We’ll never know, but I think the Rebels might have struggled to make the field without that final-day win against Texas A&M. The winning SEC record made it a lock, but at 14-15 there would have been some question marks — even with an RPI in the low 30s (That loss instead of win likely would have dropped Ole Miss to 34 or 35).
Auburn was rewarded with a three seed due to its 22 RPI and despite its 13 conference wins, but North Carolina was left out of the field with a 27 RPI and 34 wins because of a losing conference record. And that’s a team with two CWS finals appearances in the last 10 years. The committee was all over the place with reasoning. RPI helped Auburn but did nothing for Carolina. It was completely ignored with Oregon (at-large bid with 62 RPI) and Clemson (at-large bid at 54) but was the determining factor against Mizzou at 56 despite a 15-15 conference record.
Ole Miss would have been at the complete mercy if one SEC game had gone the bad way. Following the selection show, Mike Bianco mentioned that there are tons of great things about being in the SEC, but there’s a bad one because the committee will find reasons to avoid SEC teams instead of finding reasons to take them. It’s not that way with most other conferences or mid majors. It’s the first time I can remember two of the top eight SEC teams not making the field — Mizzou and Kentucky. Those RPIs were the reason, though the committee picked and chose the reasons for each selection. The Tigers and Wildcats need to schedule better. While the committee was all over the place, they did it to themselves with poor non-SEC opponents.
Let’s take a look at which regionals are the toughest draws based on RPI. Each team in each regional is listed with its RPI in parentheses. On the second line is the sum of all the RPIs in the regional — signifying total regional strength. Lower number is a more difficult field. The second number is the sum of the RPIs of the No. 2 and No. 3 seed in each regional. Considering the four seeds don’t typically play a major role in the winner, this gives you an idea which host teams have the easiest draws. For example: Ole Miss and Maryland have a combined RPI of 73. By my statistic, UCLA has the ninth toughest draw because eight other regionals have lower combined RPIs with the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds.
#1 UCLA (4) - Ole Miss (31) - Maryland (42) - Cal St Bakersfield (126)
203, 73
#2 LSU (5) - UNC Wilmington (27) - Tulane (43) - Lehigh (239)
314, 70
#3 Louisville (12) - Bradley (19) - Michigan (61) - Morehead State (112)
204, 80
#4 Florida (3) - FL Atlantic (16) - South Florida (30) - Florida A&M (231)
280, 46
#5 Miami (1) - East Carolina (24) - Columbia (67) - FIU (142)
234, 91
#6 Illinois (13) - Notre Dame (40) - Wright State (46) - Ohio (121)
220, 86
#7 TCU (8) - NC State (26) - Stony Brook (53) - Sacred Heart (221)
308, 79
#8 Missouri St (7) - Iowa (29) - Oregon (62) - Canisius (193)
291, 91
CS Fullerton (25) - Arizona State (34) - Clemson (54) - Pepperdine (113)
226, 88
Dallas Baptist (2) - Oregon State (36) - Texas (86) - VCU (97)
221, 122
Florida St (9) - Charleston (17) - Auburn (22) - Mercer (107)
155, 39
Houston (14) - Rice (33) - UL Lafayette (38) - Houston Baptist (133)
218, 71
Oklahoma St (11) - Arkansas (35) - Oral Roberts (37) - St John's (66)
149, 72
Texas A&M (6) - Coastal Carolina (18) - Cal (39) - Texas Southern (157)
220, 57
UC Santa Barbara (20) - USC (23) - Virginia (21) - San Diego St (75)
139, 44
Vanderbilt (10) - Radford (15) - Indiana (32) - Lipscomb (71)
128, 47
Quick thoughts on these numbers…
Vanderbilt doesn’t get a national seed and then gets one of the couple toughest regionals. Also the Commodores can’t hold Carson Fulmer because Lipscomb beat Vandy, 3-1, already this season. The Commodores will probably be fine, but that’s a funky regional, and Vandy has bullpen issues, as in none of the relievers throw strikes. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Vandy pressed a little.
Who on the committee is in bed with Fullerton? The Titans are hosting with a No. 25 RPI and get 34 and 54 as the No. 2 and No. 3 seed.
Then, the good news for Ole Miss: If the Rebels find a way to escape, USC (23) and Virginia (21) are in the other regional. I like one of those to win that one, and Oxford would likely outbid LA or Charlottesville for the super regional.
Cliff Godwin got a nice draw in Miami with Columbia as the No. 3 seed. Speaking of, the No. 3 seeds as a whole are way too weak.
Dallas Baptist should thank the committee. Texas should have been a No. 4 seed. That would have been very unfair to the Patriots, but based on numbers it should have happened. At least Baptist doesn’t have to see Parker French in the opening round.
CONTINUNED...
