It's that time again, where Ole Miss -- and every other college team -- takes antacids for the better part of three days and hopes its prospects don't do well enough to skip team before they arrive in it. There's also that part of trying to fit 11.7 scholarships within a roster that isn't set yet. Ole Miss came out golden last year as the entire class made it to campus, giving the Rebels the first No. 1 recruiting class in any sport in school history.
It's almost assured Ole Miss won't be as fortunate this time around, as some power arms seem destined to skip college and start professional careers. I've talked to a lot of people, as I do each year, and here are my best guess -- or more the best guesses of the people who actually know what might happen.
The Draft begins at 6 p.m. tonight. Rounds 1 and 2 are tonight. Rounds 3-10 tomorrow and rounds 11-40 are on Wednesday. We'll pretty much know the score by middle of tomorrow's picks, and we'll know some of what's up tonight.
Here's an idea of where Ole Miss is heading into tonight.
Steven Jennings, RHP, Brush Creek, Tenn.
Jennings continues to rise up boards and was featured last week at No. 22 on Keith Law's draft prospect big board. Law says about Jennings, "A three-sport athlete whose spring started late because he tore his ACL while playing hand-egg in September -- he’s a quarterback -- Jennings sits 91-93 mph with a compact arm action and a sharp breaking ball that’s hard to pick up out of his hand."
Other than Law's use of hand-egg, I agree with him, and Jennings is the most likely prospect to sign out of Ole Miss' signees. I'd guess second round, but that's a bit of a crapshoot to predict. Either way he's going to get offered a lot of money, and he seems primed to skip Oxford if the price is right -- which I expect it will be in the ballpark enough to make it an easy decision. Jennings is ranked No. 40 nationally by Perfect Game.
Caden Lemons, RHP, Vestavia Hills, Ala.
Lemons is a prospect who is a little more difficult to pin down, but as of this morning the consensus is that he will sign with a MajorLeague team before the summer is out. Lemons is at No. 52 on Law's big board, and here's what Law said, "Lemons has already been up to 95-96 mph and remains very projectable with a long, skinny frame, although scouts have durability questions and worry he won’t hold up as a starter."
The not-a-starter tag has worked some in Ole Miss' favor, and Lemons was in the top 40 for Law at the past release, but it's likely not enough of a detriment to change the status of the No. 28 national prospect on Perfect Game. The 6-foot-6 180-pounder has told people on all sides what they wanted to hear throughout the process, and that's somewhat clouded his projections. One scout I talked to was critical of Lemon's advisor for allowing conversations at times to be less than truthful about intentions. But, either way, no one expects Lemons to be on the board past the second round, and that's likely enough to seal him for a pro career immediately. If you bought a lottery ticket on Jennings or Lemons showing, I'd choose Lemons, but I wouldn't like my chances.
David Parkinson, junior, left-handed pitcher
I expect Parkinson's career in Oxford to be over. Teams like him around the fifth round, and he wouldn't improve that status with another college year. Pro scouts like his four-pitch mix and experience in the SEC for the price they will be able to get him. He's thought to be the most likely current player to sign.
Jordan Fowler, LHP, Union City, Tenn.
Fowler has flown up draft board this season after being seemingly a cinch to show up for school when he committed to the Rebels. He's added 5-6 MPH on his fastball in the past year and had a lot of scout heat during his season. He's looking around the fourth or fifth round. Fowler is the key to this class as far as salvaging the Draft. If he shows, Ole Miss adds an excellent left-handed arm and can keep the hitters and claim a success. If he signs, then it's a bit of a disaster losing the top three arms. Fowler won't get as big of an offer as Jennings or Lemons, but he's also a bigger wildcard about taking less to move on. He's in the iffy category for me on what he will do.
Also in the iffy category for me are:
Tate Blackman, junior, infielder
Brady Feigl, RS sophomore, right-handed pitcher
With Blackman, I lean toward him signing, but I've been incorrect about his signability, I think. It will take at least some semblance of an offer, and he has a chance to get a couple hundred thousand. Tate could be taken as early as the end of tomorrow but likely an early day-three selection. Then it just comes down to how much money is left over for that particular team. I wouldn't be shocked to see a pro team, if he signs, try to develop him as a catcher.
Feigl didn't go to the Cape this summer, but that wasn't about his Draft situation. He's likely going to throw a lot of innings to at least prepare as a starter in the fall if he returns to school, so the extra work this summer wouldn't be a benefit. If he'd gone to the Cape he'd be shutdown at least for a bit in the fall. He's likely a late day-two selection, so we'll see what happens. I don't have a great read on his signability, but he's believed to be open to any offers. He's also open to returning. This is a case-by-case deal.
As of now I believe Ole Miss has a good shot to keep junior right-handed pitcher Will Stokes and junior everywhere-player Will Golsan. If either of those two sign, then it's a setback to what's expected. The Rebels need Stokes to be good in the bullpen next year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Golsan move to center depending on a few other positions. The positive for Ole Miss is neither jumps off the page as a prospect because of size or other cattle-call tools scouts use.
With the signing class, Ole Miss also has a good shot to keep all the offensive players, especially including Florida corner infielder Tim Elko and Florida middle infielder Anthony Servideo. Elko is 6-foot-4, 225 pounds and can really hit, but he's right-handed, and he doesn't possess the elite multi tools that scouts like to be taken extremely high. However, he profiles as a really, really good college prospect who can grow into a really good pro prospect. Perfect Game loves him and has him at No. 69 nationally.
Servideo may be Ole Miss' second baseman next season. He does a lot of things well and is another college player profile. He only weighs 165 pounds so adding weight is necessary. He's not a burner, but he's a good runner at around a 6.7 60. In what I've seen he gets off balance in his swing at times, so that needs to be cleaned up to help with a more consistent approach.
Elko, Servideo, as well as North Carolina third baseman Tyler Keenan and physical catcher Golston Gillespie could be taken in the middle to later rounds, but it would be a big blow if any of them skip school. To this point there are no signs that they would go for the bonuses offered in those spots.
I see best case as Ole Miss only loses Jennings, Lemons and Parkinson and it's a win if the list only includes Blackman and or Feigl past that. Fowler, Blackman and Feigl are my wild cards. I was the only one talking about Fowler for the longest time, but that's no longer the case. Baseball America has him as the No. 209 draft eligible prospect. Elko is at 248 which is a little scary but should be fine.
It's a home run if Lemons or Jennings sign, and it's devastating if Ole Miss loses a high school bat.
Also, just as a last note, don't be shocked if a team picks up Kyle Watson late and he signs. I don't have intel on that. Just a hunch.
Last thing: Remember these are the Draft rules for compensation. A lot of times teams take players in rounds 7 to 10 that are guaranteed signs and gives them basically a candy bar so they can spend that slot money on other prospects. Matt Snyder and Scott Weathersby are two victims of that.
Every pick from rounds 1 to 10 have an assigned slot value, which collectively make up a team’s total allocation of funds for the draft. Teams may spend more on one player and less on another, but that’s essentially their total pot. In addition to that, players after the 10th round are subject to this constraint as well. If they sign for more than $100,000 then the difference is deducted from the pool. The penalties for overages can be stringent. If they are within zero to five percent of their pool, the penalty is limited to a 75 percent tax on their overage. Between 5 and 10 percent results in said tax plus the loss of a first round pick the following year. When you get to between 10 and 15 percent, the tax is bumped to 100 percent and the team must forfeit an additional second round pick from the subsequent year. If they manage to exceed it by more than 15 percent, the team must pay the aforementioned tax and loses their next two first rounders.
It's almost assured Ole Miss won't be as fortunate this time around, as some power arms seem destined to skip college and start professional careers. I've talked to a lot of people, as I do each year, and here are my best guess -- or more the best guesses of the people who actually know what might happen.
The Draft begins at 6 p.m. tonight. Rounds 1 and 2 are tonight. Rounds 3-10 tomorrow and rounds 11-40 are on Wednesday. We'll pretty much know the score by middle of tomorrow's picks, and we'll know some of what's up tonight.
Here's an idea of where Ole Miss is heading into tonight.
Steven Jennings, RHP, Brush Creek, Tenn.
Jennings continues to rise up boards and was featured last week at No. 22 on Keith Law's draft prospect big board. Law says about Jennings, "A three-sport athlete whose spring started late because he tore his ACL while playing hand-egg in September -- he’s a quarterback -- Jennings sits 91-93 mph with a compact arm action and a sharp breaking ball that’s hard to pick up out of his hand."
Other than Law's use of hand-egg, I agree with him, and Jennings is the most likely prospect to sign out of Ole Miss' signees. I'd guess second round, but that's a bit of a crapshoot to predict. Either way he's going to get offered a lot of money, and he seems primed to skip Oxford if the price is right -- which I expect it will be in the ballpark enough to make it an easy decision. Jennings is ranked No. 40 nationally by Perfect Game.
Caden Lemons, RHP, Vestavia Hills, Ala.
Lemons is a prospect who is a little more difficult to pin down, but as of this morning the consensus is that he will sign with a MajorLeague team before the summer is out. Lemons is at No. 52 on Law's big board, and here's what Law said, "Lemons has already been up to 95-96 mph and remains very projectable with a long, skinny frame, although scouts have durability questions and worry he won’t hold up as a starter."
The not-a-starter tag has worked some in Ole Miss' favor, and Lemons was in the top 40 for Law at the past release, but it's likely not enough of a detriment to change the status of the No. 28 national prospect on Perfect Game. The 6-foot-6 180-pounder has told people on all sides what they wanted to hear throughout the process, and that's somewhat clouded his projections. One scout I talked to was critical of Lemon's advisor for allowing conversations at times to be less than truthful about intentions. But, either way, no one expects Lemons to be on the board past the second round, and that's likely enough to seal him for a pro career immediately. If you bought a lottery ticket on Jennings or Lemons showing, I'd choose Lemons, but I wouldn't like my chances.
David Parkinson, junior, left-handed pitcher
I expect Parkinson's career in Oxford to be over. Teams like him around the fifth round, and he wouldn't improve that status with another college year. Pro scouts like his four-pitch mix and experience in the SEC for the price they will be able to get him. He's thought to be the most likely current player to sign.
Jordan Fowler, LHP, Union City, Tenn.
Fowler has flown up draft board this season after being seemingly a cinch to show up for school when he committed to the Rebels. He's added 5-6 MPH on his fastball in the past year and had a lot of scout heat during his season. He's looking around the fourth or fifth round. Fowler is the key to this class as far as salvaging the Draft. If he shows, Ole Miss adds an excellent left-handed arm and can keep the hitters and claim a success. If he signs, then it's a bit of a disaster losing the top three arms. Fowler won't get as big of an offer as Jennings or Lemons, but he's also a bigger wildcard about taking less to move on. He's in the iffy category for me on what he will do.
Also in the iffy category for me are:
Tate Blackman, junior, infielder
Brady Feigl, RS sophomore, right-handed pitcher
With Blackman, I lean toward him signing, but I've been incorrect about his signability, I think. It will take at least some semblance of an offer, and he has a chance to get a couple hundred thousand. Tate could be taken as early as the end of tomorrow but likely an early day-three selection. Then it just comes down to how much money is left over for that particular team. I wouldn't be shocked to see a pro team, if he signs, try to develop him as a catcher.
Feigl didn't go to the Cape this summer, but that wasn't about his Draft situation. He's likely going to throw a lot of innings to at least prepare as a starter in the fall if he returns to school, so the extra work this summer wouldn't be a benefit. If he'd gone to the Cape he'd be shutdown at least for a bit in the fall. He's likely a late day-two selection, so we'll see what happens. I don't have a great read on his signability, but he's believed to be open to any offers. He's also open to returning. This is a case-by-case deal.
As of now I believe Ole Miss has a good shot to keep junior right-handed pitcher Will Stokes and junior everywhere-player Will Golsan. If either of those two sign, then it's a setback to what's expected. The Rebels need Stokes to be good in the bullpen next year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Golsan move to center depending on a few other positions. The positive for Ole Miss is neither jumps off the page as a prospect because of size or other cattle-call tools scouts use.
With the signing class, Ole Miss also has a good shot to keep all the offensive players, especially including Florida corner infielder Tim Elko and Florida middle infielder Anthony Servideo. Elko is 6-foot-4, 225 pounds and can really hit, but he's right-handed, and he doesn't possess the elite multi tools that scouts like to be taken extremely high. However, he profiles as a really, really good college prospect who can grow into a really good pro prospect. Perfect Game loves him and has him at No. 69 nationally.
Servideo may be Ole Miss' second baseman next season. He does a lot of things well and is another college player profile. He only weighs 165 pounds so adding weight is necessary. He's not a burner, but he's a good runner at around a 6.7 60. In what I've seen he gets off balance in his swing at times, so that needs to be cleaned up to help with a more consistent approach.
Elko, Servideo, as well as North Carolina third baseman Tyler Keenan and physical catcher Golston Gillespie could be taken in the middle to later rounds, but it would be a big blow if any of them skip school. To this point there are no signs that they would go for the bonuses offered in those spots.
I see best case as Ole Miss only loses Jennings, Lemons and Parkinson and it's a win if the list only includes Blackman and or Feigl past that. Fowler, Blackman and Feigl are my wild cards. I was the only one talking about Fowler for the longest time, but that's no longer the case. Baseball America has him as the No. 209 draft eligible prospect. Elko is at 248 which is a little scary but should be fine.
It's a home run if Lemons or Jennings sign, and it's devastating if Ole Miss loses a high school bat.
Also, just as a last note, don't be shocked if a team picks up Kyle Watson late and he signs. I don't have intel on that. Just a hunch.
Last thing: Remember these are the Draft rules for compensation. A lot of times teams take players in rounds 7 to 10 that are guaranteed signs and gives them basically a candy bar so they can spend that slot money on other prospects. Matt Snyder and Scott Weathersby are two victims of that.
Every pick from rounds 1 to 10 have an assigned slot value, which collectively make up a team’s total allocation of funds for the draft. Teams may spend more on one player and less on another, but that’s essentially their total pot. In addition to that, players after the 10th round are subject to this constraint as well. If they sign for more than $100,000 then the difference is deducted from the pool. The penalties for overages can be stringent. If they are within zero to five percent of their pool, the penalty is limited to a 75 percent tax on their overage. Between 5 and 10 percent results in said tax plus the loss of a first round pick the following year. When you get to between 10 and 15 percent, the tax is bumped to 100 percent and the team must forfeit an additional second round pick from the subsequent year. If they manage to exceed it by more than 15 percent, the team must pay the aforementioned tax and loses their next two first rounders.
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