Found this on Reddit.
It assumes that the format would have been 6 autobids plus 6 at-large. And skips 2020 because of the covid schedule wonkiness.
Looking at it, only 2 seasons would not have a 3-loss team (though 2 other seasons the only 3-loss teams were autobids). Thanks to realignment, though, the likelihood of a 3-loss conference champ is much lower because of doing away with divisions. There were 5.7 0- or 1-loss teams per season, leaving an average of 6.3 spots for 2+ loss teams.
Even the worst season for 2+ loss bids was last year with 8 0- or 1-loss teams, so that still meant 4 slots for 2-loss teams.
So, the question is, do we win out? (Probably not.) And if we do win out, would be one of the Top 4 2-loss teams? (Probably yes.)
It assumes that the format would have been 6 autobids plus 6 at-large. And skips 2020 because of the covid schedule wonkiness.
Looking at it, only 2 seasons would not have a 3-loss team (though 2 other seasons the only 3-loss teams were autobids). Thanks to realignment, though, the likelihood of a 3-loss conference champ is much lower because of doing away with divisions. There were 5.7 0- or 1-loss teams per season, leaving an average of 6.3 spots for 2+ loss teams.
Even the worst season for 2+ loss bids was last year with 8 0- or 1-loss teams, so that still meant 4 slots for 2-loss teams.
So, the question is, do we win out? (Probably not.) And if we do win out, would be one of the Top 4 2-loss teams? (Probably yes.)
