It's 8/1/2024, so it is just throwing things out to stir things up with football to be played later this month, but this list has some glaring issues to it. Mainly due to the fact that it uses the ESPN FPI...
www.espn.com
2023 record: 11-2
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +1600
CFP ranking history: 28 appearances, highest at No. 4
Dinich's take: Ole Miss should have a top-10 chance to make the CFP. It would have qualified for the 12-team field last year and in 2021 -- and the Rebels are likely to be even better this season with quarterback Jaxson Dart returning. With former Alabama coach Nick Saban retired, and significant turnover on LSU's roster, this could be the perfect opportunity for coach Lane Kiffin to take the next step in the SEC and the CFP.
Toughest test: Nov. 9 vs. Georgia. The Bulldogs remain the standard in the SEC, and last year beat Ole Miss 52-17. Ole Miss can make the playoff, but it has to close this gap significantly if it's going to have any chance of winning it. This year, the Rebels will have home-field advantage.
What the committee will like: A winning record against LSU, Oklahoma, and Georgia. These are the three most difficult opponents on the Rebels' schedule, and ESPN's FPI gives Ole Miss less than a 50% chance to win each of those games. If Ole Miss can go 2-1, though, it will put itself in position to play for the SEC championship (assuming it wins its other games, of course) and almost assuredly earn an at-large bid if it doesn't win the league. The selection committee won't be impressed by the first-half schedule, which includes nonconference games against Furman, Middle Tennessee and Georgia Southern. A win against Wake Forest will help more if the Demon Deacons are ranked, but as long as they have a winning season, the committee would look favorably on that victory. Still, the Rebels will need more to impress the group if they don't win the SEC. If Ole Miss is as good as those within the program believe it is, the Rebels should be undefeated heading into their Oct. 12 trip to LSU.
What the committee won't like: No statement road wins. If Ole Miss doesn't win at LSU, it might not face another ranked opponent on the road. The Rebels travel to Wake Forest, South Carolina, Arkansas and Florida. This isn't something likely to keep Ole Miss out of the CFP, but it will be a point of discussion if there is a close debate.
Teams listed ahead of Ole Miss to make the CFP:
1. UGA - 79.1%
2. Oregon - 76%
3. Texas - 67.8%
4. Ohio St - 67.2%
5. Penn St - 59.1%
6. Notre Dame - 59.1%
7. Alabama - 57.2%
8. Missouri - 37.3%
9. Tennessee - 36.9%
10. Oklahoma - 36.6%
11. Florida St - 35.9%
12. Michigan - 28.5%
13. Clemson - 26.9%
14. LSU - 25.3%
15. Kansas - 24%
16. Kansas St - 21.4%
17. Texas A&M - 21%
The computers definitely seem to have a strong BIG 10 + Notre Dame flavor to them based on the early data. The other glaring thing that stands out is just how odd it feels looking at Kansas & Kansas St as the computer favorites from the Big XII.
College Football Playoff 2024: 30 teams that can reach postseason
Heather Dinich analyzes the teams with at least a 10% chance to make the CFP.
18. Ole Miss Rebels
FPI's chance to make playoff: 20.7% | Win national title: .8%2023 record: 11-2
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +1600
CFP ranking history: 28 appearances, highest at No. 4
Dinich's take: Ole Miss should have a top-10 chance to make the CFP. It would have qualified for the 12-team field last year and in 2021 -- and the Rebels are likely to be even better this season with quarterback Jaxson Dart returning. With former Alabama coach Nick Saban retired, and significant turnover on LSU's roster, this could be the perfect opportunity for coach Lane Kiffin to take the next step in the SEC and the CFP.
Toughest test: Nov. 9 vs. Georgia. The Bulldogs remain the standard in the SEC, and last year beat Ole Miss 52-17. Ole Miss can make the playoff, but it has to close this gap significantly if it's going to have any chance of winning it. This year, the Rebels will have home-field advantage.
What the committee will like: A winning record against LSU, Oklahoma, and Georgia. These are the three most difficult opponents on the Rebels' schedule, and ESPN's FPI gives Ole Miss less than a 50% chance to win each of those games. If Ole Miss can go 2-1, though, it will put itself in position to play for the SEC championship (assuming it wins its other games, of course) and almost assuredly earn an at-large bid if it doesn't win the league. The selection committee won't be impressed by the first-half schedule, which includes nonconference games against Furman, Middle Tennessee and Georgia Southern. A win against Wake Forest will help more if the Demon Deacons are ranked, but as long as they have a winning season, the committee would look favorably on that victory. Still, the Rebels will need more to impress the group if they don't win the SEC. If Ole Miss is as good as those within the program believe it is, the Rebels should be undefeated heading into their Oct. 12 trip to LSU.
What the committee won't like: No statement road wins. If Ole Miss doesn't win at LSU, it might not face another ranked opponent on the road. The Rebels travel to Wake Forest, South Carolina, Arkansas and Florida. This isn't something likely to keep Ole Miss out of the CFP, but it will be a point of discussion if there is a close debate.
Teams listed ahead of Ole Miss to make the CFP:
1. UGA - 79.1%
2. Oregon - 76%
3. Texas - 67.8%
4. Ohio St - 67.2%
5. Penn St - 59.1%
6. Notre Dame - 59.1%
7. Alabama - 57.2%
8. Missouri - 37.3%
9. Tennessee - 36.9%
10. Oklahoma - 36.6%
11. Florida St - 35.9%
12. Michigan - 28.5%
13. Clemson - 26.9%
14. LSU - 25.3%
15. Kansas - 24%
16. Kansas St - 21.4%
17. Texas A&M - 21%
The computers definitely seem to have a strong BIG 10 + Notre Dame flavor to them based on the early data. The other glaring thing that stands out is just how odd it feels looking at Kansas & Kansas St as the computer favorites from the Big XII.
