1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson*
Did you expect anyone else? I haven't seen a quarterback prospect quite like Lawrence in almost a decade, and the Jaguars are certainly in the market for one. Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon and Jake Luton combined for the NFL's second-worst Total QBR in 2020 (43.7). Jacksonville will have a new general manager and a new coach after losing 15 games, and the 6-foot-6 Lawrence -- who has a huge arm, good mobility in the pocket and all the intangibles you could ask for -- would give the team a starting quarterback who should soon be among the NFL's best. Lawrence declared for the draft on Wednesday.
2. New York Jets
Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon*
EDITOR'S PICKS
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General manager Joe Douglas has a lot of decisions to make ahead of free agency and the draft, not the least of which is what to do at quarterback. The Jets' pair of late-season victories made it an even more difficult call. BYU's Zach Wilson or Ohio State's Justin Fields could be in play, as could a trade back to stockpile more picks. Moving down would really be the ideal move.
Since we're not mocking trades this far out, and with Lawrence off the board, I think the Jets will stick with Sam Darnold as their guy under center and build around him. That begins with a game-changing offensive tackle. New York allowed 43 sacks this season, and its rushing attack tied for sixth worst in yards per carry (4.1). Sewell, a 2020 opt-out, would do wonders for both weak spots. And after taking Mekhi Becton in Round 1 in April, the Jets would have a pair of elite tackles bookending the line.
3. Miami Dolphins (via HOU)
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
No, I don't think the Dolphins are drafting another quarterback. I do think they will draft a high-impact player here to give Tua Tagovailoa support. Smith, who caught 83 passes from Tagovailoa over three years at Alabama, is the real deal. He is quick off the line, excellent on vertical shots and able to haul in anything thrown in his direction. Miami managed just 7.1 yards per attempt when targeting a wide receiver this season (27th in the NFL), whereas Smith piled up more than 1,600 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns in 2020 -- and the Heisman Trophy winner still has another college game to play.
4. Atlanta Falcons
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU*
Atlanta will have a new head coach and a new GM for the 2021 season, and after it struggled to just four wins in 2020, it could be looking for a complete reboot. The Falcons will need to address running back, parts of the offensive line and the secondary this offseason, so moving back and acquiring some extra picks might be the smart call. However, quarterback Matt Ryan will be 36 years old when next season kicks off, and his contract allows an out after 2022. The chance to draft an heir this high isn't a guarantee in future years, so could Atlanta make the move here and now?
The decision between Wilson and Justin Fields would be close. It's perhaps the toughest player-vs.-player debate in the class right now, at least for me. They both compete so well. I'm going with Wilson's toughness in the pocket and deep-ball prowess, giving the Falcons a signal-caller of the future.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
Just four teams allowed more sacks than Cincinnati this season, not something you want to see right after drafting a franchise quarterback at No. 1 overall. Jonah Williams, a 2019 first-round tackle, is the only entrenched starter on the offensive line at the moment, and with Joe Burrow returning from a knee injury, protection will be even more important in 2021. A 2020 opt-out, Slater projects best as an interior lineman -- possibly at center -- but he also has experience at both left and right tackle. With Penei Sewell gone, Slater is the top offensive lineman on my board here and will help fix a woeful unit with growing importance to the future success of this Bengals team. But also watch for the Bengals to try to move up to get Sewell.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
Micah Parsons, ILB, Penn State*
2021 NFL draft coverage
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Full ranking » | Pick order » | More »
The Eagles haven't drafted an off-the-ball linebacker in the first two rounds since 2012, when they took Mychal Kendricks at No. 46 overall. But wow, is Parsons special. He can drop in coverage, wrap up in run defense or get to the QB when turned loose on a blitz.
While wide receiver remains a problem even after drafting Jalen Reagor in the first round last April -- and LSU's Ja'Marr Chase will be tempting -- this WR class is deep and still offers playmakers when Philly is back on the clock on Day 2. Trading back is an option, but if the Eagles stay home, this pick at No. 6 is all about the best player available: Parsons.
7. Detroit Lions
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU*
Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr. and Danny Amendola are all set to be free agents, and Chase is an explosive route runner with great body control. He opted out in 2020 but set a SEC record for receiving yards in 2019.
Some will point to a defensive need after Detroit allowed a league-worst 419.8 yards per game. Some will argue it is time for a new quarterback, with Matthew Stafford turning 33 and having a potential out on his contract after next season. A new coaching staff and general manager might take the team in a new direction, and maybe that direction is with Justin Fields driving the offense. But it's tough to ignore how well Chase matches need with value here for the Lions.
8. Carolina Panthers
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida*
This is another spot where QB could be in play -- Teddy Bridgewater struggled down the stretch -- as well as an offensive line that will need to navigate free-agency issues. But what about Pitts? He would be a problem for opposing defensive coordinators, bringing size, speed and hands to a position that has lacked a punch for Carolina since Greg Olsen left town. Pitts caught 12 touchdowns in eight games this season at Florida, and he would be a real matchup advantage for offensive coordinator Joe Brady. No team had fewer passing yards when targeting a tight end in 2020 than the Panthers (195). Pitts would join 10 other tight ends to be drafted this high in the common draft era (since 1967).
9. Denver Broncos
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, ILB, Notre Dame
Still no Justin Fields? It's a legitimate possibility and something I considered heavily here, but I think Denver ultimately will give Drew Lock another year to prove he's the guy. Cornerback is another position to watch, especially with Alabama's Patrick Surtain II still out there. But I love Owusu-Koramoah's range, instincts and suddenness. He found his way into just about every statistical category in 2020, including racking up 11 tackles for loss.
ESPN Illustration10. Dallas Cowboys
Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama*
What Dallas does in the draft will likely come down to the outcome of Dak Prescott's contract situation. The Cowboys will know whether they need a QB by the time they're on the clock; we just don't know right now. But considering Surtain is still available, and Dallas hasn't had a shutdown corner in years, this seems almost too easy.
It wasn't Surtain's best season, but he has strong instincts and can redirect wideouts where he wants them. Trevon Diggs -- Surtain's former teammate in Tuscaloosa -- appears to be a great value pick for Dallas (No. 51 in 2020), but fellow cornerbacks Jourdan Lewis and Chidobe Awuzie could be coming off the books this offseason. On throws outside the hashes, Dallas allowed the fourth-highest opponent QBR in 2020 (83.5).
11. New York Giants
Gregory Rousseau, DE/OLB, Miami-FL*
The Giants managed 40 sacks this season, thanks in large part to Leonard Williams bouncing back and getting 11.5 of them. But few would argue against the Giants needing edge-rushing help to take a much-improved defense to the next level, particularly if they don't return Williams, who played this season on the franchise tag. Rousseau opted out this season, but he had 15.5 sacks for the Hurricanes in 2019 and has speed and power coming around the corner. Alternatively, offensive line, wide receiver or cornerback could be areas to keep an eye on for New York.
12. San Francisco 49ers
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech*
The 49ers' pass defense was a strength this season, ranking fourth in yards allowed per game (207.9). But here's the list of pending unrestricted free agents at cornerback: Richard Sherman, Jason Verrett, Ahkello Witherspoon, K'Waun Williams and Dontae Johnson. Injuries hurt San Francisco all over this season, but there isn't a bigger question mark on the team going forward than at corner. Enter Farley, a 2020 opt-out with terrific ball skills. He had four interceptions for the Hokies in 2019.
Could the Niners make a change at QB? Of course, especially if Justin Fields were actually to fall this far. (He is dropping in this mock mainly because there aren't any trades.) Jimmy Garoppolo is only under contract for two more seasons, has very little guaranteed money still owed to him and has battled injuries during his time with the 49ers.
13. Los Angeles Chargers
Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
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Los Angeles will deal with a lot of free-agency issues this offseason, with players at key positions on expiring deals. Keep a close eye on what happens in March, because it will determine everything about where the Chargers go with this pick, especially as they hire a new coach. They had one of the stingiest pass defenses in the NFL in 2020, but Casey Hayward Jr. and Chris Harris Jr. will both be turning 32 years old this season. Wade can play inside or outside, and he excels in zone coverage -- which the Chargers use at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL.
14. Minnesota Vikings
Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech*
Ezra Cleveland, last year's second-rounder, has helped the offensive line, but the Vikings still need a dominant tackle. They were one of 12 teams that allowed quarterback pressure on at least 30% of their dropbacks. Darrisaw is a talented left tackle who has power as a pass protector and can get to the second level to help block for Dalvin Cook in Minnesota's zone run schemes. Other possibilities might include pass-rush aid -- the Vikings had the fifth-fewest sacks in 2020 with 23 -- or a safety.
15. New England Patriots
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State*
OK, it's time. And what a terrific outcome this would be for coach Bill Belichick. Fields fell to No. 15 here because we aren't doing trades in this mock. There's little chance he makes it this far down the board, especially after his six-touchdown performance in the Sugar Bowl quieted some big-game concerns. Someone will move up to get him.
But what a nice fit Fields makes in New England. The Patriots tied the Giants for the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL this season with 12, and New England joined the Broncos as the only teams with more interceptions thrown than TDs (14). Cam Newton, who was largely ineffective this season, will turn 32 in May and is set to be a free agent again. Jarrett Stidham doesn't appear to be the guy, either. Tom Brady is no longer walking through that door, and it's a different era for the Patriots' passing offense. Fields would change that, with plenty of zip on his vertical shots and an ability to create when things break down.
16. Arizona Cardinals
Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Etienne is a home run hitter with fantastic contact balance and improving pass-catching ability. The Cardinals' rushing offense was top 10 in yards per game in 2020, but much of that was from quarterback Kyler Murray, who accounted for more than a third of the team's gains on the ground. Arizona's running backs had the 19th-best yards per carry (4.16), and lead back Kenyan Drake played the season on a transition tag -- and he isn't under contract for 2021. Etienne would join Murray and DeAndre Hopkins in what would be one of the league's most dangerous offenses.
17. Las Vegas Raiders
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama*
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Didn't the Raiders just draft Henry Ruggs in the first round last year? Didn't they then take Bryan Edwards in the third? Yes, but this team still needs playmakers on offense. Nelson Agholor is likely to be a free agent, and Edwards hasn't yet taken the step. Waddle missed most of the 2020 season -- though he could return Monday for the national championship game -- but he is arguably the most explosive wide receiver in the nation. He would give coach Jon Gruden yet another speedy problem to throw at opponents and also help one of the NFL's worst kick-return units. Thanks to a busy 2020 offseason and some secondary-friendly draft classes, there aren't too many other glaring needs. However, the Raiders' 21 sacks were the league's fourth fewest, and it'd be a good spot to start looking at additional pass-rushers.
This would mark the sixth time a school has sent two wide receivers off as first-round picks in the same year (DeVonta Smith being the other), and after two Alabama WRs also went in the first in 2020 -- including Ruggs -- Alabama would become the first school ever to have two WRs go in the first round twice, let alone in back-to-back years.
18. Miami Dolphins
Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota*
How badly does Tua Tagovailoa need playmakers around him in Miami, as he had at Alabama? I'm giving the Dolphins two first-round wide receivers, something no team has done in the common draft era. DeVonta Smith starts that process at No. 3, and Bateman continues it at No. 18. Among 33 qualified quarterbacks, Tagovailoa ranked 31st in QBR when targeting a wide receiver (60.8) this season. Bateman would provide him with a tenacious middle-of-the-field presence, and he has great hands. Smith, Bateman, DeVante Parker and Preston Williams would give Tagovailoa's offense some oomph.
For picks beyond this point, we used projections from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to determine order. Draft slots will be determined as teams are eliminated from the 2020 NFL playoffs, which begin on Saturday.
19. Washington Football Team
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State*
Here we are again, two years after Washington selected Dwayne Haskins in the first round. It didn't work out. And while Alex Smith has completed an inspiring comeback and led Washington to the playoffs, he isn't the future of this team. Smith averaged just 5 air yards per attempt this season. Coach Ron Rivera needs to be thinking about the direction he wants to take his roster, and Lance would give him a QB to develop. The third-year sophomore had a one-game season in 2020, and he never saw an FBS opponent in his career. But he has strong downfield touch and can tuck and run, and he went the entire 2019 season without an interception.
20. Chicago Bears
Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss*
Well, Mitchell Trubisky might be playing his way back onto the Bears' 2021 roster -- and with four quarterbacks off the board already here, there wouldn't be too many options if Chicago chose to go that route. I'll be watching to see what Chicago does in free agency at QB or if the Bears attempt to trade up at all. Regardless, the Bears need weapons to get this offense closer to the talented defense's level. Worse, Allen Robinson is a pending free agent. Moore could be an excellent pick here, bringing speed and an ability to work the middle of the field. He trailed only DeVonta Smith in catches and receiving yardage this season.
21. Indianapolis Colts
Mac Jones, QB, Alabama*
A fifth quarterback! Only once in the common draft era have five QBs been drafted in the first 21 picks: 1999, when Tim Couch led a pack of five in the opening 12 selections. The top end of this signal-caller class is special, and the Colts are squarely in the mix for one of them, with 39-year-old Philip Rivers finishing up his one-year deal. Jacob Eason is the only name on the Colts' 2021 QB depth chart at the moment. Jones puts excellent placement on deep balls, anticipates well and shows poise in the pocket. His 4,036 yards and 36 touchdown passes both ranked second in the nation this season.
play
4:46
Jones and Smith lead No. 1 Bama to CFP championship
Mac Jones' four TDs and DeVonta Smith's three TDs help the Crimson Tide overpower No. 4 Notre Dame 31-14 to advance to the CFP National Championship.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR)
Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa*
We went offense in a big way at No. 1 overall, so let's pivot to defense with the Jaguars' second pick of Day 1. Nixon has great instincts and agility for his 305-pound size. In recent drafts, Jacksonville has padded the edge with K'Lavon Chaisson and Josh Allen, but the middle of the line still needs help. Its 4.7 yards per carry allowed is tied for fifth worst in the NFL, and Colts running back Jonathan Taylor just gutted the Jags for 253 rushing yards on Sunday. Nixon had 13.5 tackles for loss this season and would be a good building block for the team's new staff.
23. Cleveland Browns
Zaven Collins, OLB, Tulsa*
The playoff-bound Browns will probably be looking exclusively at the defense here, though wide receiver depth is again something to watch. The secondary could use reinforcements, with Terrance Mitchell, Karl Joseph, Andrew Sendejo and Kevin Johnson finishing their current deals with the team; but remember that Grant Delpit and Greedy Williams will return from the injured reserve next season. A middle linebacker also might be in play. But edge rushing is this team's biggest hole going forward. Myles Garrett can't do it alone -- he had 12 of Cleveland's 38 sacks this season -- and Olivier Vernon might not be back. Collins, who would be Tulsa's second first-rounder in the common draft era, has closing burst off the edge.
24. Tennessee Titans
Joseph Ossai, OLB, Texas*
It took a four-sack performance in Week 17 against a woeful Houston offensive line for the Titans not to finish last in the NFL in sacks this season. They still finished third to last with 19. Harold Landry was the only player to have more than three sacks (5.5). The pass rush is the biggest flaw in their playoff roster, so this pick comes down to guys like Ossai, Kwity Paye (Michigan), Joe Tryon (Washington) and Jaelan Phillips (Miami). With a 3-4 defense, I like Ossai's fit in Tennessee. He had five sacks and 16 tackles for loss this season, showcasing high-end instincts and speed.
25. New York Jets (via SEA)
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State*
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In an effort to continue giving Sam Darnold a better supporting cast -- remember, we gave the Jets an elite offensive tackle at No. 2 -- let's go to the wide receiver well. No one in this class separates as well as Olave does, thanks in part to tremendous wheels. He was terrific against Clemson (two touchdowns), and he has gone for 100-plus receiving yards in five of six games so far this season. The Jets' passing attack ranked second worst in the NFL despite trailing a good deal of the time. No receiver went over 700 yards for them. Jamison Crowder has struggled to stay healthy. Breshad Perriman is potentially headed out of town. And the Jets haven't had a 1,000-yard wideout since 2015.
26. Baltimore Ravens
Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
Can Baltimore bring back Yannick Ngakoue? Will it re-sign Matthew Judon and Jihad Ward? What does Calais Campbell, who will be 35 in September, have left in the tank? It might not seem like a problem now, but the edge could be something for the Ravens to target in order to maintain a strength. Paye needs some time to develop, but he had 8.5 sacks over his past 16 games in college, and he could pivot to 3-4 outside linebacker. If not the edge, watch for the Ravens to look at the interior offensive line, potentially Ohio State's Wyatt Davis.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama*
It's noteworthy that Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are all on expiring deals, but the front seven's descent into free agency is more eyebrow-raising. Few teams had a better defense in 2020, and no one came close to the Buccaneers' run-stopping. Their 80.6 rushing yards allowed were 10 better than the second-best team. But Tampa Bay must now figure how to keep from slipping, with Ndamukong Suh, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Steve McLendon, Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett and Kevin Minter all looking at the open market on the horizon. That's a problem. Barmore, a third-year sophomore, shows strong gap control against the run, and he tallied 7.0 sacks this season. The 310-pounder would lighten any offseason losses while lining up alongside Vita Vea.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
James Conner is playing out the final few games of his rookie deal and might not return. If he doesn't, running back will be a hole. Benny Snell looked adequate this season when called upon, but Harris is different. His 1,387 rushing yards are third in the FBS this season, and he has averaged two scores on the ground per game. Speed, power, pass-catching and pass-protection ability, Harris brings it all.
On the quarterback front, Pittsburgh could potentially land one of the top five guys, but a deeper option also could be in the mix if Ben Roethlisberger decides to retire and/or the team does not do something in free agency. Offensive line also is a big-time need, so perhaps Wyatt Davis (Ohio State) or Trey Smith (Tennessee) are in the mix.
play
1:21
Should the Steelers look for Big Ben's successor in the 2021 draft?
Mike Tannenbaum and Bart Scott discuss whether the Steelers should look for Ben Roethlisberger's successor in the draft or bring in a more experienced quarterback.
29. Buffalo Bills
Wyatt Davis, G, Ohio State*
The Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs connection was electric this season, but with Jon Feliciano, Daryl Williams and Brian Winters starring at free agency, the interior offensive line will likely need new blood to keep Allen upright and flinging it to Diggs. Cody Ford will return from a knee injury, but Davis has the 315-pound size, mobility and awareness to make a big impact. In 666 pass-blocking snaps over the past two seasons, Davis has allowed just two sacks.
30. New Orleans Saints
Nick Bolton, ILB, Missouri*
The Saints could use a talent like Bolton, as inside linebacker is perhaps the only question mark on their stout defense. He plays fast and has great instincts in coverage, compiling 95 tackles this season. Sliding him in at the second level would help keep New Orleans' run defense strong.
31. Green Bay Packers
Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU*
Another mock, another wide receiver to the Packers. Maybe this is the year Green Bay finally does it for Aaron Rodgers. This will be the 11th first-round selection for the Packers since 2012, and the only offensive one was another quarterback (Jordan Love, 2020). Rodgers, the likely MVP, slung it this season, leading the NFL in touchdown passes with 48 and showing no signs of decline -- but 18 of them went to Davante Adams. Quite simply, the Packers have to replenish the WR room with game-breakers, and Marshall (who opted out halfway through the 2020 season) can come down with balls in traffic and tack on big yards after the catch.
As an aside, running back will be something to watch on Day 2. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams might not return to Lambeau Field, and the likes of Michael Carter (North Carolina), Javonte Williams (North Carolina), Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma State), Trey Sermon (Ohio State) and Kenneth Gainwell (Memphis) could be names to keep an eye on.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Derion Kendrick, CB, Clemson*
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson*
Did you expect anyone else? I haven't seen a quarterback prospect quite like Lawrence in almost a decade, and the Jaguars are certainly in the market for one. Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon and Jake Luton combined for the NFL's second-worst Total QBR in 2020 (43.7). Jacksonville will have a new general manager and a new coach after losing 15 games, and the 6-foot-6 Lawrence -- who has a huge arm, good mobility in the pocket and all the intangibles you could ask for -- would give the team a starting quarterback who should soon be among the NFL's best. Lawrence declared for the draft on Wednesday.
2. New York Jets
Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon*
EDITOR'S PICKS
McShay's NFL draft rankings: A new No. 2 QB in the class, and some big risers
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General manager Joe Douglas has a lot of decisions to make ahead of free agency and the draft, not the least of which is what to do at quarterback. The Jets' pair of late-season victories made it an even more difficult call. BYU's Zach Wilson or Ohio State's Justin Fields could be in play, as could a trade back to stockpile more picks. Moving down would really be the ideal move.
Since we're not mocking trades this far out, and with Lawrence off the board, I think the Jets will stick with Sam Darnold as their guy under center and build around him. That begins with a game-changing offensive tackle. New York allowed 43 sacks this season, and its rushing attack tied for sixth worst in yards per carry (4.1). Sewell, a 2020 opt-out, would do wonders for both weak spots. And after taking Mekhi Becton in Round 1 in April, the Jets would have a pair of elite tackles bookending the line.
3. Miami Dolphins (via HOU)
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
No, I don't think the Dolphins are drafting another quarterback. I do think they will draft a high-impact player here to give Tua Tagovailoa support. Smith, who caught 83 passes from Tagovailoa over three years at Alabama, is the real deal. He is quick off the line, excellent on vertical shots and able to haul in anything thrown in his direction. Miami managed just 7.1 yards per attempt when targeting a wide receiver this season (27th in the NFL), whereas Smith piled up more than 1,600 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns in 2020 -- and the Heisman Trophy winner still has another college game to play.
4. Atlanta Falcons
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU*
Atlanta will have a new head coach and a new GM for the 2021 season, and after it struggled to just four wins in 2020, it could be looking for a complete reboot. The Falcons will need to address running back, parts of the offensive line and the secondary this offseason, so moving back and acquiring some extra picks might be the smart call. However, quarterback Matt Ryan will be 36 years old when next season kicks off, and his contract allows an out after 2022. The chance to draft an heir this high isn't a guarantee in future years, so could Atlanta make the move here and now?
The decision between Wilson and Justin Fields would be close. It's perhaps the toughest player-vs.-player debate in the class right now, at least for me. They both compete so well. I'm going with Wilson's toughness in the pocket and deep-ball prowess, giving the Falcons a signal-caller of the future.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
Just four teams allowed more sacks than Cincinnati this season, not something you want to see right after drafting a franchise quarterback at No. 1 overall. Jonah Williams, a 2019 first-round tackle, is the only entrenched starter on the offensive line at the moment, and with Joe Burrow returning from a knee injury, protection will be even more important in 2021. A 2020 opt-out, Slater projects best as an interior lineman -- possibly at center -- but he also has experience at both left and right tackle. With Penei Sewell gone, Slater is the top offensive lineman on my board here and will help fix a woeful unit with growing importance to the future success of this Bengals team. But also watch for the Bengals to try to move up to get Sewell.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
Micah Parsons, ILB, Penn State*
2021 NFL draft coverage
• Meet the loaded, elite QB class »
• 30 big questions for Kiper & McShay »
• Mini mock of the projected top 10 »
• Rankings: Kiper » | McShay »
Full ranking » | Pick order » | More »
The Eagles haven't drafted an off-the-ball linebacker in the first two rounds since 2012, when they took Mychal Kendricks at No. 46 overall. But wow, is Parsons special. He can drop in coverage, wrap up in run defense or get to the QB when turned loose on a blitz.
While wide receiver remains a problem even after drafting Jalen Reagor in the first round last April -- and LSU's Ja'Marr Chase will be tempting -- this WR class is deep and still offers playmakers when Philly is back on the clock on Day 2. Trading back is an option, but if the Eagles stay home, this pick at No. 6 is all about the best player available: Parsons.
7. Detroit Lions
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU*
Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr. and Danny Amendola are all set to be free agents, and Chase is an explosive route runner with great body control. He opted out in 2020 but set a SEC record for receiving yards in 2019.
Some will point to a defensive need after Detroit allowed a league-worst 419.8 yards per game. Some will argue it is time for a new quarterback, with Matthew Stafford turning 33 and having a potential out on his contract after next season. A new coaching staff and general manager might take the team in a new direction, and maybe that direction is with Justin Fields driving the offense. But it's tough to ignore how well Chase matches need with value here for the Lions.
8. Carolina Panthers
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida*
This is another spot where QB could be in play -- Teddy Bridgewater struggled down the stretch -- as well as an offensive line that will need to navigate free-agency issues. But what about Pitts? He would be a problem for opposing defensive coordinators, bringing size, speed and hands to a position that has lacked a punch for Carolina since Greg Olsen left town. Pitts caught 12 touchdowns in eight games this season at Florida, and he would be a real matchup advantage for offensive coordinator Joe Brady. No team had fewer passing yards when targeting a tight end in 2020 than the Panthers (195). Pitts would join 10 other tight ends to be drafted this high in the common draft era (since 1967).
9. Denver Broncos
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, ILB, Notre Dame
Still no Justin Fields? It's a legitimate possibility and something I considered heavily here, but I think Denver ultimately will give Drew Lock another year to prove he's the guy. Cornerback is another position to watch, especially with Alabama's Patrick Surtain II still out there. But I love Owusu-Koramoah's range, instincts and suddenness. He found his way into just about every statistical category in 2020, including racking up 11 tackles for loss.
ESPN Illustration10. Dallas Cowboys
Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama*
What Dallas does in the draft will likely come down to the outcome of Dak Prescott's contract situation. The Cowboys will know whether they need a QB by the time they're on the clock; we just don't know right now. But considering Surtain is still available, and Dallas hasn't had a shutdown corner in years, this seems almost too easy.
It wasn't Surtain's best season, but he has strong instincts and can redirect wideouts where he wants them. Trevon Diggs -- Surtain's former teammate in Tuscaloosa -- appears to be a great value pick for Dallas (No. 51 in 2020), but fellow cornerbacks Jourdan Lewis and Chidobe Awuzie could be coming off the books this offseason. On throws outside the hashes, Dallas allowed the fourth-highest opponent QBR in 2020 (83.5).
11. New York Giants
Gregory Rousseau, DE/OLB, Miami-FL*
The Giants managed 40 sacks this season, thanks in large part to Leonard Williams bouncing back and getting 11.5 of them. But few would argue against the Giants needing edge-rushing help to take a much-improved defense to the next level, particularly if they don't return Williams, who played this season on the franchise tag. Rousseau opted out this season, but he had 15.5 sacks for the Hurricanes in 2019 and has speed and power coming around the corner. Alternatively, offensive line, wide receiver or cornerback could be areas to keep an eye on for New York.
12. San Francisco 49ers
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech*
The 49ers' pass defense was a strength this season, ranking fourth in yards allowed per game (207.9). But here's the list of pending unrestricted free agents at cornerback: Richard Sherman, Jason Verrett, Ahkello Witherspoon, K'Waun Williams and Dontae Johnson. Injuries hurt San Francisco all over this season, but there isn't a bigger question mark on the team going forward than at corner. Enter Farley, a 2020 opt-out with terrific ball skills. He had four interceptions for the Hokies in 2019.
Could the Niners make a change at QB? Of course, especially if Justin Fields were actually to fall this far. (He is dropping in this mock mainly because there aren't any trades.) Jimmy Garoppolo is only under contract for two more seasons, has very little guaranteed money still owed to him and has battled injuries during his time with the 49ers.
13. Los Angeles Chargers
Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
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Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay break down the 2021 NFL draft.
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Los Angeles will deal with a lot of free-agency issues this offseason, with players at key positions on expiring deals. Keep a close eye on what happens in March, because it will determine everything about where the Chargers go with this pick, especially as they hire a new coach. They had one of the stingiest pass defenses in the NFL in 2020, but Casey Hayward Jr. and Chris Harris Jr. will both be turning 32 years old this season. Wade can play inside or outside, and he excels in zone coverage -- which the Chargers use at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL.
14. Minnesota Vikings
Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech*
Ezra Cleveland, last year's second-rounder, has helped the offensive line, but the Vikings still need a dominant tackle. They were one of 12 teams that allowed quarterback pressure on at least 30% of their dropbacks. Darrisaw is a talented left tackle who has power as a pass protector and can get to the second level to help block for Dalvin Cook in Minnesota's zone run schemes. Other possibilities might include pass-rush aid -- the Vikings had the fifth-fewest sacks in 2020 with 23 -- or a safety.
15. New England Patriots
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State*
OK, it's time. And what a terrific outcome this would be for coach Bill Belichick. Fields fell to No. 15 here because we aren't doing trades in this mock. There's little chance he makes it this far down the board, especially after his six-touchdown performance in the Sugar Bowl quieted some big-game concerns. Someone will move up to get him.
But what a nice fit Fields makes in New England. The Patriots tied the Giants for the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL this season with 12, and New England joined the Broncos as the only teams with more interceptions thrown than TDs (14). Cam Newton, who was largely ineffective this season, will turn 32 in May and is set to be a free agent again. Jarrett Stidham doesn't appear to be the guy, either. Tom Brady is no longer walking through that door, and it's a different era for the Patriots' passing offense. Fields would change that, with plenty of zip on his vertical shots and an ability to create when things break down.
16. Arizona Cardinals
Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Etienne is a home run hitter with fantastic contact balance and improving pass-catching ability. The Cardinals' rushing offense was top 10 in yards per game in 2020, but much of that was from quarterback Kyler Murray, who accounted for more than a third of the team's gains on the ground. Arizona's running backs had the 19th-best yards per carry (4.16), and lead back Kenyan Drake played the season on a transition tag -- and he isn't under contract for 2021. Etienne would join Murray and DeAndre Hopkins in what would be one of the league's most dangerous offenses.
17. Las Vegas Raiders
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama*
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Didn't the Raiders just draft Henry Ruggs in the first round last year? Didn't they then take Bryan Edwards in the third? Yes, but this team still needs playmakers on offense. Nelson Agholor is likely to be a free agent, and Edwards hasn't yet taken the step. Waddle missed most of the 2020 season -- though he could return Monday for the national championship game -- but he is arguably the most explosive wide receiver in the nation. He would give coach Jon Gruden yet another speedy problem to throw at opponents and also help one of the NFL's worst kick-return units. Thanks to a busy 2020 offseason and some secondary-friendly draft classes, there aren't too many other glaring needs. However, the Raiders' 21 sacks were the league's fourth fewest, and it'd be a good spot to start looking at additional pass-rushers.
This would mark the sixth time a school has sent two wide receivers off as first-round picks in the same year (DeVonta Smith being the other), and after two Alabama WRs also went in the first in 2020 -- including Ruggs -- Alabama would become the first school ever to have two WRs go in the first round twice, let alone in back-to-back years.
18. Miami Dolphins
Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota*
How badly does Tua Tagovailoa need playmakers around him in Miami, as he had at Alabama? I'm giving the Dolphins two first-round wide receivers, something no team has done in the common draft era. DeVonta Smith starts that process at No. 3, and Bateman continues it at No. 18. Among 33 qualified quarterbacks, Tagovailoa ranked 31st in QBR when targeting a wide receiver (60.8) this season. Bateman would provide him with a tenacious middle-of-the-field presence, and he has great hands. Smith, Bateman, DeVante Parker and Preston Williams would give Tagovailoa's offense some oomph.
For picks beyond this point, we used projections from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to determine order. Draft slots will be determined as teams are eliminated from the 2020 NFL playoffs, which begin on Saturday.
19. Washington Football Team
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State*
Here we are again, two years after Washington selected Dwayne Haskins in the first round. It didn't work out. And while Alex Smith has completed an inspiring comeback and led Washington to the playoffs, he isn't the future of this team. Smith averaged just 5 air yards per attempt this season. Coach Ron Rivera needs to be thinking about the direction he wants to take his roster, and Lance would give him a QB to develop. The third-year sophomore had a one-game season in 2020, and he never saw an FBS opponent in his career. But he has strong downfield touch and can tuck and run, and he went the entire 2019 season without an interception.
20. Chicago Bears
Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss*
Well, Mitchell Trubisky might be playing his way back onto the Bears' 2021 roster -- and with four quarterbacks off the board already here, there wouldn't be too many options if Chicago chose to go that route. I'll be watching to see what Chicago does in free agency at QB or if the Bears attempt to trade up at all. Regardless, the Bears need weapons to get this offense closer to the talented defense's level. Worse, Allen Robinson is a pending free agent. Moore could be an excellent pick here, bringing speed and an ability to work the middle of the field. He trailed only DeVonta Smith in catches and receiving yardage this season.
21. Indianapolis Colts
Mac Jones, QB, Alabama*
A fifth quarterback! Only once in the common draft era have five QBs been drafted in the first 21 picks: 1999, when Tim Couch led a pack of five in the opening 12 selections. The top end of this signal-caller class is special, and the Colts are squarely in the mix for one of them, with 39-year-old Philip Rivers finishing up his one-year deal. Jacob Eason is the only name on the Colts' 2021 QB depth chart at the moment. Jones puts excellent placement on deep balls, anticipates well and shows poise in the pocket. His 4,036 yards and 36 touchdown passes both ranked second in the nation this season.
play
4:46
Jones and Smith lead No. 1 Bama to CFP championship
Mac Jones' four TDs and DeVonta Smith's three TDs help the Crimson Tide overpower No. 4 Notre Dame 31-14 to advance to the CFP National Championship.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR)
Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa*
We went offense in a big way at No. 1 overall, so let's pivot to defense with the Jaguars' second pick of Day 1. Nixon has great instincts and agility for his 305-pound size. In recent drafts, Jacksonville has padded the edge with K'Lavon Chaisson and Josh Allen, but the middle of the line still needs help. Its 4.7 yards per carry allowed is tied for fifth worst in the NFL, and Colts running back Jonathan Taylor just gutted the Jags for 253 rushing yards on Sunday. Nixon had 13.5 tackles for loss this season and would be a good building block for the team's new staff.
23. Cleveland Browns
Zaven Collins, OLB, Tulsa*
The playoff-bound Browns will probably be looking exclusively at the defense here, though wide receiver depth is again something to watch. The secondary could use reinforcements, with Terrance Mitchell, Karl Joseph, Andrew Sendejo and Kevin Johnson finishing their current deals with the team; but remember that Grant Delpit and Greedy Williams will return from the injured reserve next season. A middle linebacker also might be in play. But edge rushing is this team's biggest hole going forward. Myles Garrett can't do it alone -- he had 12 of Cleveland's 38 sacks this season -- and Olivier Vernon might not be back. Collins, who would be Tulsa's second first-rounder in the common draft era, has closing burst off the edge.
24. Tennessee Titans
Joseph Ossai, OLB, Texas*
It took a four-sack performance in Week 17 against a woeful Houston offensive line for the Titans not to finish last in the NFL in sacks this season. They still finished third to last with 19. Harold Landry was the only player to have more than three sacks (5.5). The pass rush is the biggest flaw in their playoff roster, so this pick comes down to guys like Ossai, Kwity Paye (Michigan), Joe Tryon (Washington) and Jaelan Phillips (Miami). With a 3-4 defense, I like Ossai's fit in Tennessee. He had five sacks and 16 tackles for loss this season, showcasing high-end instincts and speed.
25. New York Jets (via SEA)
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State*
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In an effort to continue giving Sam Darnold a better supporting cast -- remember, we gave the Jets an elite offensive tackle at No. 2 -- let's go to the wide receiver well. No one in this class separates as well as Olave does, thanks in part to tremendous wheels. He was terrific against Clemson (two touchdowns), and he has gone for 100-plus receiving yards in five of six games so far this season. The Jets' passing attack ranked second worst in the NFL despite trailing a good deal of the time. No receiver went over 700 yards for them. Jamison Crowder has struggled to stay healthy. Breshad Perriman is potentially headed out of town. And the Jets haven't had a 1,000-yard wideout since 2015.
26. Baltimore Ravens
Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
Can Baltimore bring back Yannick Ngakoue? Will it re-sign Matthew Judon and Jihad Ward? What does Calais Campbell, who will be 35 in September, have left in the tank? It might not seem like a problem now, but the edge could be something for the Ravens to target in order to maintain a strength. Paye needs some time to develop, but he had 8.5 sacks over his past 16 games in college, and he could pivot to 3-4 outside linebacker. If not the edge, watch for the Ravens to look at the interior offensive line, potentially Ohio State's Wyatt Davis.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama*
It's noteworthy that Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are all on expiring deals, but the front seven's descent into free agency is more eyebrow-raising. Few teams had a better defense in 2020, and no one came close to the Buccaneers' run-stopping. Their 80.6 rushing yards allowed were 10 better than the second-best team. But Tampa Bay must now figure how to keep from slipping, with Ndamukong Suh, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Steve McLendon, Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett and Kevin Minter all looking at the open market on the horizon. That's a problem. Barmore, a third-year sophomore, shows strong gap control against the run, and he tallied 7.0 sacks this season. The 310-pounder would lighten any offseason losses while lining up alongside Vita Vea.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
James Conner is playing out the final few games of his rookie deal and might not return. If he doesn't, running back will be a hole. Benny Snell looked adequate this season when called upon, but Harris is different. His 1,387 rushing yards are third in the FBS this season, and he has averaged two scores on the ground per game. Speed, power, pass-catching and pass-protection ability, Harris brings it all.
On the quarterback front, Pittsburgh could potentially land one of the top five guys, but a deeper option also could be in the mix if Ben Roethlisberger decides to retire and/or the team does not do something in free agency. Offensive line also is a big-time need, so perhaps Wyatt Davis (Ohio State) or Trey Smith (Tennessee) are in the mix.
play
1:21
Should the Steelers look for Big Ben's successor in the 2021 draft?
Mike Tannenbaum and Bart Scott discuss whether the Steelers should look for Ben Roethlisberger's successor in the draft or bring in a more experienced quarterback.
29. Buffalo Bills
Wyatt Davis, G, Ohio State*
The Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs connection was electric this season, but with Jon Feliciano, Daryl Williams and Brian Winters starring at free agency, the interior offensive line will likely need new blood to keep Allen upright and flinging it to Diggs. Cody Ford will return from a knee injury, but Davis has the 315-pound size, mobility and awareness to make a big impact. In 666 pass-blocking snaps over the past two seasons, Davis has allowed just two sacks.
30. New Orleans Saints
Nick Bolton, ILB, Missouri*
The Saints could use a talent like Bolton, as inside linebacker is perhaps the only question mark on their stout defense. He plays fast and has great instincts in coverage, compiling 95 tackles this season. Sliding him in at the second level would help keep New Orleans' run defense strong.
31. Green Bay Packers
Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU*
Another mock, another wide receiver to the Packers. Maybe this is the year Green Bay finally does it for Aaron Rodgers. This will be the 11th first-round selection for the Packers since 2012, and the only offensive one was another quarterback (Jordan Love, 2020). Rodgers, the likely MVP, slung it this season, leading the NFL in touchdown passes with 48 and showing no signs of decline -- but 18 of them went to Davante Adams. Quite simply, the Packers have to replenish the WR room with game-breakers, and Marshall (who opted out halfway through the 2020 season) can come down with balls in traffic and tack on big yards after the catch.
As an aside, running back will be something to watch on Day 2. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams might not return to Lambeau Field, and the likes of Michael Carter (North Carolina), Javonte Williams (North Carolina), Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma State), Trey Sermon (Ohio State) and Kenneth Gainwell (Memphis) could be names to keep an eye on.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Derion Kendrick, CB, Clemson*
