Since the SEC is such a difficult conference, I like to look at polls that take into account SOS and other game factors. Right now, my favorite poll to look at is the ESPN Team Efficiencies Poll that is part of the Football Power Index.
ESPN defines the team efficiencies as follows: "Team efficiencies are based on the point contributions of each unit to the team's scoring margin, on a per-play basis. The values are adjusted for strength of schedule and down-weighted for "garbage time" (based on win probability). The scale goes from 0 to 100; higher numbers are better and the average is roughly 50 for all categories. Efficiencies update daily during the season."
So over the first 3 Freeze years, where have the Rebels ranked in offense, defense, special teams and overall (with SEC rank in parenthesis)?
2012 - Offense: 37 (6); Defense: 22 (6); Special Teams: 114 (14); Overall: 30 (8)
2013 - Offense: 36 (8); Defense: 27 (6); Special Teams: 101 (13); Overall: 26 (8)
2014 - Offense: 39 (8); Defense: 2 (1) ; Special Teams: 79 (9) ; Overall: 9 (4)
One thing that doesn't surprise me is how similar we were on offense the first three years under Bo/Freeze. Basically middle of the pack every year. Without much behind it, my theory is that we will be about the same this year with a new QB. 2012 shows we can still be middle of the pack with a new QB, but I think it's improbable we make a huge jump there unless Kelly really takes off.
As for defense, I am a little surprised we were so good in 12 and 13, but the 14 results are no shock. The talent is clearly there for a defense in 2015 that is similar to last seasons.
But the one glaring thing when considering Freeze's first 3 teams, is how bad we have been on special teams. Like really bad.
We actually improved on special teams last year, enough so to make a pretty decent jump. However, that doesn't really tell how bad we still were. These are our national ranks in certain categories: Punt return (91); Kick return (94); FG% (118); PAT% (86); Net punting (61); Net Kick Return (109). So even though we got better last year, we still sucked.
For comparison, roughly the top half in the league are 50th or higher in ST efficiency (2013 Georgia was 7th at 56) every year and usually 5 or more teams are in the top 30ish. Therefore, one area we can markedly improve is ST. But why do we not focus on it other than bad return men when the FG and Kickoffs were pretty bad too last year? And I would argue that for as much as we have harped on the bad return game, it still doesn't get enough blame for how much it hurts us overall.
In conclusion, I do not think it is reasonable for us to expect a big jump in offensive efficiency. We have been pretty consistent in this offense scheme, and planning on a jump with a new QB is not realistic. If we do get better, then that would be unexpected gravy. However, I do think it is fair to expect another top 5 defensive unit. We are extremely talented, and where we lose experience, we have gained length and athleticism. We also have tons of NFL talent on that side of the ball, and that usually equals a pretty strong unit.
But for us to logically make a big jump this year, here's hoping that Gleeson, Wunderlich, and whoever returns punts and kicks has a big year. ST is where we have been way below average and stand the most room to improve.
ESPN defines the team efficiencies as follows: "Team efficiencies are based on the point contributions of each unit to the team's scoring margin, on a per-play basis. The values are adjusted for strength of schedule and down-weighted for "garbage time" (based on win probability). The scale goes from 0 to 100; higher numbers are better and the average is roughly 50 for all categories. Efficiencies update daily during the season."
So over the first 3 Freeze years, where have the Rebels ranked in offense, defense, special teams and overall (with SEC rank in parenthesis)?
2012 - Offense: 37 (6); Defense: 22 (6); Special Teams: 114 (14); Overall: 30 (8)
2013 - Offense: 36 (8); Defense: 27 (6); Special Teams: 101 (13); Overall: 26 (8)
2014 - Offense: 39 (8); Defense: 2 (1) ; Special Teams: 79 (9) ; Overall: 9 (4)
One thing that doesn't surprise me is how similar we were on offense the first three years under Bo/Freeze. Basically middle of the pack every year. Without much behind it, my theory is that we will be about the same this year with a new QB. 2012 shows we can still be middle of the pack with a new QB, but I think it's improbable we make a huge jump there unless Kelly really takes off.
As for defense, I am a little surprised we were so good in 12 and 13, but the 14 results are no shock. The talent is clearly there for a defense in 2015 that is similar to last seasons.
But the one glaring thing when considering Freeze's first 3 teams, is how bad we have been on special teams. Like really bad.
We actually improved on special teams last year, enough so to make a pretty decent jump. However, that doesn't really tell how bad we still were. These are our national ranks in certain categories: Punt return (91); Kick return (94); FG% (118); PAT% (86); Net punting (61); Net Kick Return (109). So even though we got better last year, we still sucked.
For comparison, roughly the top half in the league are 50th or higher in ST efficiency (2013 Georgia was 7th at 56) every year and usually 5 or more teams are in the top 30ish. Therefore, one area we can markedly improve is ST. But why do we not focus on it other than bad return men when the FG and Kickoffs were pretty bad too last year? And I would argue that for as much as we have harped on the bad return game, it still doesn't get enough blame for how much it hurts us overall.
In conclusion, I do not think it is reasonable for us to expect a big jump in offensive efficiency. We have been pretty consistent in this offense scheme, and planning on a jump with a new QB is not realistic. If we do get better, then that would be unexpected gravy. However, I do think it is fair to expect another top 5 defensive unit. We are extremely talented, and where we lose experience, we have gained length and athleticism. We also have tons of NFL talent on that side of the ball, and that usually equals a pretty strong unit.
But for us to logically make a big jump this year, here's hoping that Gleeson, Wunderlich, and whoever returns punts and kicks has a big year. ST is where we have been way below average and stand the most room to improve.
