I apologize for the tardiness of my weekly post. After watching games that affected our spot in the pecking order (those didn't go well, or maybe they did) I was all prepped to make it happen yesterday evening when I got an invitation to go to the 7A North Half game in Starkville (about an hour's drive from Tupelo). Wow! Burnside! Wow! (I will make additional comments later). Back on topic, the end of the 2023 season came and went Thursday night as Ole Miss went to Starkville and gutted out a tough 17-7 victory over a very game MSU team in front of a raucous crowd at Davis-Wade Stadium. Ole Miss finished 10-2 on the season, which was considerably better than most pundits/prognosticators thought we would be in 2023. (I predicted 11-1 TBH in August. I thought we would catch Alabama before they had things figured out at QB. Texas ended up being that benefactor instead of us) It was a great season, one of many ups and a few downs. In this season-ending post, I will talk about things that kept the game close, plays and players that turned the game in our favor, Ole Miss' bowl prospects, and finish up with a quick look at 2024.
1. Offensive Line
Show me a good football team, and I will show you a good offensive line. A good OL makes not only your offense better, it makes your team better due to the quality of opposition your defense sees in 1s v 1s in practice. Our OL did not perform at a very high level in 2023, but was decent after Prieskorn came back from injury. I have criticized Pettus in this spot more than once this season, but his impact was felt when he was no longer out there. Then, we lost Williams (bowl game status?), and the issues compounded. I am not at practice every day, so I am not privy to the reasons guys like Acker, who started several games last year, can't even get on the field while others seem to miss their assignment regularly when the opposing defense stunts A gap and leave Judkins alone with a LB who has a full head of steam play every snap... but I digress. The bottom line, we aren't very deep in a position group that you
MUST HAVE quality depth. The result of this:
A. We weren't able to block them with any consistency.
B. This prevented us from establishing any type of rhythm on offense
C. This allowed them to match our stops on defense with stops of their own
D. which kept the crowd in the game
E. which kept them energized...gave them hope, etc...
We aren't the same team we were in Late September/October/early November. We have got to be a leader in the portal and on the recruiting trail and make OL a
MUST-HAVE. I would like to see us earmark a portion of our NIL to scholarship OL like Texas did. Seems to have worked out pretty well for them.
2. QB1 is HURT
Dart...what do you say except just tip your cap and salute? He has a serious shoulder issue. My SWAG (IYKYK) is it is a grade 2 or 3 separation. Possibly bruised rotator cuff. At any rate, the guy goes out and guts it out for his team, throwing his body around in the process, as usual. That dude is a warrior that coaches dream of having lead their team. I am really glad he is coming back to cement his legend and lead our first playoff team next season. Oxford will be a zoo hosting a 1st round game! (YSWIDT)
3. Judkins
Judkins ran like a man possessed. He had to have at least 80% of his yards (119 on 28 carries) after first contact. He was our offense. We gave him just enough of a crease and he did the rest. I hope Bentley is ok. Looked like bruised ribs to me, possibly cracked. Hope not.
4. Overall
Our inability to throw the ball down the field was likely due to the injuries to QB1 and our OL. That said, we didn't get much separation down the field all night. Their DBs aren't that good. Not sure about that.
I have seen it debated on here by others, but Harris, if he can, and Prieskorn need to come back. Both will make more in NIL next year than they will on an NFL practice squad. I could say more, but I just don't think either is ready for an NFL roster next season.
5. Notable Plays
A. The first FG where Costa kicked and Caden Davis was the holder. Does anyone know what the deal was there? CLK alluded to it in his presser, saying something about Prieskorn. I watched it several times yesterday and it possibly could have been a fake, as Prieskorn went downfield like he was going to block. Anybody know what happened?
B. Their missed FG at the end of the half. It was only a 42-yard attempt. Should have been an easy make. It would have changed the mindset of both teams, one way or another, going into halftime.
C. After getting a big play on a 1st down to the Ole Miss 20-yard line down 3-0 in the 3rd, MSU goes to the trick play, attempting a halfback pass. Anthony did a great job of staying at home and picking up the TE slipping out. MSU scored on the drive later anyway, but a big play TD on a play like that would have been a big boost emotionally for a team playing with high emotion already.
D. Down 7-3 in the 3rd, Ole Miss has a 1st and 20 after a holding call (imagine that). Judkins takes the ball and goes 15 yards up the middle, breaking a couple of tackles in the process. Sets up 2nd and manageable, keeping the drive alive. We score later in the drive to take the lead for good.
E. First play of 4th quarter, 10-7 Ole Miss. 4th and 3 and the MSU 41. Dart rolls right and hits Watkins on a well-designed rub route. Wade ran a great curl route right at the defender on Watkins, enabling him to get separation for the catch and 1st down.
F. 10-7 OM. 13:30 left in 4th. 3rd down 2 at the MSU 26. We have the heavy package in, and MSU stacks the box (9 or 10, depending on your definition of the box). Beautiful fake by Dart and an easy throw to Prieskorn for the TD. I called the play before the snap. It was just a feeling. My biggest fear once I saw the play develop was Dart overthrowing the ball. Game, set, match.
G. MSU has 3rd and 4 at the OM 24. 7:14 left. 17-7. Rogers completes a pass for a 1st down to the 20. MSU is called for offensive pass interference(it was, but Alabama, Georgia, or LSU don't get that called on them in the same situation, just saying). Instead, MSU ends up missing a 50-yard FG off the crossbar. The game stays a 2-score game.
H. 17-7 OM. 5:30 left. We punt (Masin had a great night, BTW, averaging 43 yards on a season-high 8 punts) and they get the big return where at least 1 obvious block in the back occurs. The big play was made by Masin, who made a touchdown-saving tackle. Again, we maintain the 2-score margin.
6. Bowl Prospects
I could write a long narrative here about why I wanted us to get a NY6 game and where I wanted to go (Cotton against Texas was my hope) but I will just suffice it to say we will most likely be better off in the long term with a trip to Orlando against Iowa. Will it be dull? Possibly. Is it our best chance to win 11 games? Absolutely. We have played at our ceiling for much of the season. Is Missouri better than us? No. I think we would beat them. We have a better resume. Period. There is no argument from anyone who has an ounce of objectivity. They lost to LSU at home 1 week after we beat LSU at home. That is it. I know the UGA comparison, but UGA had the big OT and Bowers back for our game, and our game was at night. Plus, as a person who attended the game, UGA was
focused on us, I mean, they wanted Ole Miss. It was obvious. Anyway, I think the Citrus is where we belong. I didn't think that before Thursday night, but it is my thought now.
7. Recruiting and 2024
I went to the 7A North Half game last night. Burnside is the real deal! He reminds me a lot of Malik Nabers from LSU. Not to commit Ole Miss blasphemy here, but I would dare say he is better than AJ at the same stage of development. I would say that AJ has/had more upside though (CPT Obvious). We need guys like that. Hope we can land him. We need OL, both inside and outside dudes who are nasty run blockers and understand protection areas of responsibility on pass plays. We need 2 more receivers (and Harris to come back). We need another option at RB. We need Prieskorn to stay and either develop some of the guys we have (Wolfe, Conner both have potential) or get another TE in the portal. We need DL help. We need CB help. We desperately need LB help. (As Chase said, we won 10 games this year with virtually no LB play.)
All of that said, I am going to make an early prediction, based on what I see as a much more manageable schedule in 2024
AND the dudes (and stable coaching) we have coming back. This team will start the season in the top 10 and will have an opportunity to be in the hunt for a playoff spot at this time next year. I will say 10-2 is the floor (soft, 9-3 is hard) and 11-1 is the ceiling (soft, 12-0 is a long shot). These are, in respect to my life, the good ole days. I am on the roller coaster, LFG!
@Burger1
