Ole Miss, as you know by now, plays Saint Louis at 6:30 p.m. Friday to open the Oxford Regional. From D1Baseball.com naming Miller Hogan the best pitcher in the regional to the gaudy numbers the right-hander puts up, there’s been a lot of back and forth, so let’s take a look at just how much of a test Ole Miss should see on Friday.
Up front let me get this out of the way: the tournament should seed 1-64 to avoid these situations. A few non-national seed hosts got coast-worthy four seeds, while Ole Miss and Stanford were hit with considerable opening night tests. Saint Louis isn’t one of the best couple four seeds in the tournament, but Hogan is one of the best one or two arms that a one seed will see to open the NCAA Tournament.
I’ve talked to multiple coaches and scouts about each team and I’ll focus on Ole Miss’ opponents as they come. So, obviously, today we start with the Billikens.
There’s a juxtaposition with Hogan’s numbers. He’s 10-3 with a 2.19 ERA and a .196 batting average against. He has 129 strikeouts to just 12 walks, and it’s easy to see why people are salivating at this matchup. But what to make of the strength of schedule? Half of Hogan’s starts are against teams 227 or worse in RPI, and he’s faced just one top 25 opponent — seven innings of one-run work against Jacksonville.
Here’s the deal: He’s not as talented as Ryan Rolison, and he wouldn’t be an ace in SEC. However, one baseball insider told me he would pitch on Sundays for Florida and would be a mid-level Saturday arm or good Sunday arm throughout the conference. A couple other people who would know have agreed with that sentiment when I told them.
There’s been some differences in his reports because his velocity was down a touch in the Cape last summer, but Hogan is going to consistently attack with the fastball and top it out at 93-94 MPH. He’s been able to hold the velocity to around 93-94 through six innings.
The slider is serviceable to good, and he has a split change that’s honestly more changeup than split, but he can locate it and throw it in any count. The four-seam fastball is very straight without much movement, and that’s what he likes to elevate. It works really well against mediocre to bad teams. The two-seam fastball can be 86-89 MPH with a lot of runaway sink. Hogan is better against right-handers than left-handers, but the lefties have to avoid chasing that two-seamer. There’s a curve ball, too, but no one mentions it much.
Thomas Dillard told me Hogan threw four or five pitches for strikes in the Cape, and his competitiveness is the main thing he remembers. I’m hearing that a lot. One person told me, “Hogan thinks he’s a Big Leaguer and he won’t be scared one bit.” He also tunnels his pitches from the same slot really well, and that makes all the stuff play a little better than it is.
Against teams that could have hurt him, Hogan has shown up and located well. But that’s the thing. He lives on the corners, and the pitches aren’t dynamic enough to be thrown across the middle of the plate. It’s uncertain how that love for the high fastball at 92 plays against an elite SEC team if it’s over the plate. Another person told me, “he’s good and if it’s on the corners it’ll be a game, but if it’s over the plate and he doesn’t have command they will wear him out.”
Most people expect him to be taken in the fifth to eight rounds of the Draft next week. He’s a good arm, and he gets bonus points for makeup because a lot of four seeds would cower in the environment, but he’s not expected to do that. To me, this is about Ole Miss. Rolison needs to be on his game against an inferior lineup, and the Rebels have seen better than Hogan. This isn’t a guaranteed win, but Hogan isn’t Casey Mize either.
There’s not a lot in the STL bullpen to mention. Ryan Lefner is the closer, and he has 42 strikeouts and only seven walks in 33.1 innings, but there’s not much overpowering about the stuff. Once Hogan is out of the game, it falls on the Ole Miss offense to execute. I’ll look at other Saint Louis starting pitchers if needed, but I don’t anticipate that.
Offensively the Billikens were dealt a blow this week, as all-conference outfielder Parker Sniatynski was suspended because of a legal situation. He has a lot of swing and miss, but he’s also their best overall hitter.
Jake Garella is hitting .362 while striking out once in almost every four at-bats. He has 14 doubles and a .900 OPS, and he can punish Rolison mistakes. He’s pretty slow twitch though, so located pitches should overmatch him.
I like shortstop Alex King the best as far as overall players. Think Austin Anderson at the A-10 level. He has 29 extra base hits and is second on the team in total bases.
I’m assuming the catcher will be James Morisano. They platoon, but he’s mostly caught Hogan. Morisano is average for the college level. Not bad, not a superior athlete. Ole Miss doesn’t have to alter any game plan because of him.
In conclusion, starting pitching is the strength for the Billkens, and Hogan is very capable of making things complicated for Ole Miss. It’s also hyperbole to act like he’s 2010 Drew Pomeranz. The Rebels have the best offense, best defense, best bullpen and a first round pick on the mound Friday night. If the Rebels play well, they will win the game. The danger is STL is good enough to hang round if Ole Miss lets them.
Up front let me get this out of the way: the tournament should seed 1-64 to avoid these situations. A few non-national seed hosts got coast-worthy four seeds, while Ole Miss and Stanford were hit with considerable opening night tests. Saint Louis isn’t one of the best couple four seeds in the tournament, but Hogan is one of the best one or two arms that a one seed will see to open the NCAA Tournament.
I’ve talked to multiple coaches and scouts about each team and I’ll focus on Ole Miss’ opponents as they come. So, obviously, today we start with the Billikens.
There’s a juxtaposition with Hogan’s numbers. He’s 10-3 with a 2.19 ERA and a .196 batting average against. He has 129 strikeouts to just 12 walks, and it’s easy to see why people are salivating at this matchup. But what to make of the strength of schedule? Half of Hogan’s starts are against teams 227 or worse in RPI, and he’s faced just one top 25 opponent — seven innings of one-run work against Jacksonville.
Here’s the deal: He’s not as talented as Ryan Rolison, and he wouldn’t be an ace in SEC. However, one baseball insider told me he would pitch on Sundays for Florida and would be a mid-level Saturday arm or good Sunday arm throughout the conference. A couple other people who would know have agreed with that sentiment when I told them.
There’s been some differences in his reports because his velocity was down a touch in the Cape last summer, but Hogan is going to consistently attack with the fastball and top it out at 93-94 MPH. He’s been able to hold the velocity to around 93-94 through six innings.
The slider is serviceable to good, and he has a split change that’s honestly more changeup than split, but he can locate it and throw it in any count. The four-seam fastball is very straight without much movement, and that’s what he likes to elevate. It works really well against mediocre to bad teams. The two-seam fastball can be 86-89 MPH with a lot of runaway sink. Hogan is better against right-handers than left-handers, but the lefties have to avoid chasing that two-seamer. There’s a curve ball, too, but no one mentions it much.
Thomas Dillard told me Hogan threw four or five pitches for strikes in the Cape, and his competitiveness is the main thing he remembers. I’m hearing that a lot. One person told me, “Hogan thinks he’s a Big Leaguer and he won’t be scared one bit.” He also tunnels his pitches from the same slot really well, and that makes all the stuff play a little better than it is.
Against teams that could have hurt him, Hogan has shown up and located well. But that’s the thing. He lives on the corners, and the pitches aren’t dynamic enough to be thrown across the middle of the plate. It’s uncertain how that love for the high fastball at 92 plays against an elite SEC team if it’s over the plate. Another person told me, “he’s good and if it’s on the corners it’ll be a game, but if it’s over the plate and he doesn’t have command they will wear him out.”
Most people expect him to be taken in the fifth to eight rounds of the Draft next week. He’s a good arm, and he gets bonus points for makeup because a lot of four seeds would cower in the environment, but he’s not expected to do that. To me, this is about Ole Miss. Rolison needs to be on his game against an inferior lineup, and the Rebels have seen better than Hogan. This isn’t a guaranteed win, but Hogan isn’t Casey Mize either.
There’s not a lot in the STL bullpen to mention. Ryan Lefner is the closer, and he has 42 strikeouts and only seven walks in 33.1 innings, but there’s not much overpowering about the stuff. Once Hogan is out of the game, it falls on the Ole Miss offense to execute. I’ll look at other Saint Louis starting pitchers if needed, but I don’t anticipate that.
Offensively the Billikens were dealt a blow this week, as all-conference outfielder Parker Sniatynski was suspended because of a legal situation. He has a lot of swing and miss, but he’s also their best overall hitter.
Jake Garella is hitting .362 while striking out once in almost every four at-bats. He has 14 doubles and a .900 OPS, and he can punish Rolison mistakes. He’s pretty slow twitch though, so located pitches should overmatch him.
I like shortstop Alex King the best as far as overall players. Think Austin Anderson at the A-10 level. He has 29 extra base hits and is second on the team in total bases.
I’m assuming the catcher will be James Morisano. They platoon, but he’s mostly caught Hogan. Morisano is average for the college level. Not bad, not a superior athlete. Ole Miss doesn’t have to alter any game plan because of him.
In conclusion, starting pitching is the strength for the Billkens, and Hogan is very capable of making things complicated for Ole Miss. It’s also hyperbole to act like he’s 2010 Drew Pomeranz. The Rebels have the best offense, best defense, best bullpen and a first round pick on the mound Friday night. If the Rebels play well, they will win the game. The danger is STL is good enough to hang round if Ole Miss lets them.
