I have managed to push through bye-week withdrawals and thought a way to get myself back in the mindset would be to write a post about a few things I observed in the off week. This is the 1st time to do this, so I hope you guys bear with me. This will be random.
1. I said several weeks ago after we lost to LSU that they would lose to A&M, and then in a subsequent post said that they were not through losing. Well, here we are, 3 weeks later and 3 LSU losses later. Watching them makes my blood boil, that they beat us! Unbelievable! Why did I refuse to buy on LSU?
A. I saw LSU look pretty listless against USC, their body language was terrible, I KNEW USC wasn't good, and they lost that game, so that was the beginning.
B. I never bought Nuss and his NFL future. Why? Well, the guy has NFL receivers, an NFL TE, and a couple of NFL OL, and he can't seem to complete 50% of his passes and makes poor decisions after poor decisions.
C. Their defense is not good. They don't play the run well, they don't play the pass well. How we didn't score 50 on them is beyond me. Those missed opportunities in the 1st quarter were so big.
1A. Maintaining full transparency, I bought the preseason Missouri hype. I thought the Tigers would be a force based on the number of returners they had at key positions, such as Luther Burden III, Brady Cook, and their DL, and their less-than-formidable schedule (not Texas-esque, but close). I did jump off the Drink Train after the Vanderbilt game, not because of how they won, but because of the flaws I saw. I KNEW they weren't going 10-2 in this league after that game. To their credit, they made the USCe game closer than I thought it would be (I had USCe to cover).
2. Texas is not great. They are good, but very beatable. If Arkansas had found any type of pulse on offense in the 1st half, they would have beat Texas. I know, if a frog had wings... I get it. Texas KNEW that they were walking into a hornet nest Saturday (Arky HATES them), and they KNEW that Arkansas was inferior from a talent viewpoint, so they KNEW that they would be Arky's Super Bowl, and they trudged through the game with no ability to create any separation between them and Arky. I still find it incomprehensible that the SEC gave them the schedule that they got their 1st 2 years in the league. Their best win AND their toughest road game to date has been Vanderbilt. Think about that and let that sink in. They were gifted a playoff spot this year by the SEC office, or whomever makes out the schedule. I fear that we are all going to find out why Texas A&M (and Arky, and OU, and Nebraska etc etc etc) hates them so much and we all will have buyer's remorse about them being invited to join at some point.
3. 4 of the top 5 in the polls are from the BIG, with Texas being the lone representative from the SEC. Let's think about this for a minute. Oregon is undefeated and does have the win over tOSU, which I believe is a legitimate title contender, but they struggled to beat a very meh Wisky team that has no QB play and can't score at all. Who really thinks Penn State or Indiana is better than Georgia, Ole Miss, or Tennessee? Barring something crazy, the BIG is going to get 4 playoff berths, and IMHO, they don't deserve but 2 (Oregon and tOSU). Make that 3 if Indiana plays really well against tOSU. Penn State is NOT a playoff team. I don't care if they go 11-1, which is their likely end result. They are NOT good.
4. BYU's Miami-esque luck finally ran out in the Big XII, as that football powerhouse Kansas went into Provo and took down the Cougs. Unfortunately, we can't talk too much, as we got beat at home by a basketball school too. The best team in the Big XII right now is, IMHO, Colorado. Love him or hate him, watered-down Big XII or not, Deion Sanders has done a remarkable job in Boulder. Travis Hunter is the best 2-way player I have seen in a long time, maybe ever. He is a legit favorite to win the Heisman (that bums me, as I wanted JD to win it). If they get to the Big XII championship game, I believe they will win it. That would be great, to win a 1st round game and get to play Colorado in the 2nd round.
5. The ACC is a similar mess. Clemson is probably the best team, but they are likely going to have 3 losses this season. USCe will beat them IMHO. Miami, unless they get some help from the football gods ( and/or the ACC office/officiating crew) will lose their 2nd game at Syracuse. That leaves SMU, a 1st-year member who paid 100 million dollars to join the league. Now THAT is pay-for-play! Who says money can't buy wins? Like in point #4, a 2nd round matchup with SMU would be too much.
6. My current top 4 in the SEC are, in order: 1. Ole Miss (I freely admit I am biased) 2. Alabama 3. Georgia 4. Tennessee. Yes, I don't think Texas or Texas A&M are in the top 4. See Texas vs UGA and Texas A&M vs USCe. An example of a win for each team that proves my case is Texas vs Arkansas (or Vandy, their best win to date) and Texas A&M vs Arkansas ( or Mississippi State). Unfortunately, unless Kentucky can pull another magical road win out of its....hat...Either Texas or A&M will play in the SECCG, which will mean at least 1 of them will make the playoff. I can't believe I am saying this, but I hope that Auburn beats A&M this weekend and ends their charade.
7. Ok, let's talk about Ole Miss now. In my preseason prediction post, I predicted that we would go 11-1 with a lone loss to either Arkansas (before UGA) or Florida (after UGA). I did not see any way we would lose to Kentucky and I thought we would survive a white knuckle slobber knocker in Baton Rouge. Well, here we are, 8-2 with the big win over UGA that I predicted and a week off to come back down to Earth and get back to business. Here are some Florida facts:
A. Florida, as I thought in preseason ( #12 in talent composite), is a dangerous team that seems to be searching for a sliver of light to turn the corner. They have talent. Lagway is a player. Their talent composite ranking is higher than ours (we are #20). They boat raced Kentucky, gave UGA all they wanted until Lagway went down, beat LSU in the Napier revenge bowl, and have only looked really bad against Miami in the season opener and against Texas with the walk-on kid playing QB.
B. Early in the season, with all the talk swirling about an impending coaching change, all the criticism they endured, all the distractions, they could have folded the tents and taken the individual attitude "I am going to take care of me and mine". Instead, they circled the wagons, kept playing hard, and kept fighting for their coach, team, fans, season, etc. I don't know a player or coach on the team, but I know what the qualities of good character on a football team are, and Florida has exhibited it...all season.
C. They have historically been a very good team in The Swamp. The Nettleton Legend and I went to watch us play Florida there in 2015 in the infamous "flu game" (IYKYK). They beat us like we stole something. The place was loud and intimidating, and that, combined with some great play by Will Grier and all the other "flu-ridden" guys, just destroyed us. The stakes are similar on Saturday. UF has nothing to lose, and we have everything on the line. We will get their best shot. It will be a tough game. It will be intense. We have to get out to a quick start and take the crowd out of the game. Winning on the road in the SEC is tough. We have to play with the same laser focus and intensity that we played with against UGA.
8. The formula for beating Florida Saturday is simple to explain and difficult to execute:
A. Put the UGA game in the trash, re-establish our hunger and focus, realize how big the game is for our season, and play our normal game.
B. Neutralize Lagway. Make someone else beat us. If we show up mentally this week at practice and on Saturday and play like we are capable of and keep Lagway in check, we win.
C. See A & B.
D. See A & B.
9. Prediction: I have been picking the games with the Rebelgrove staff all year. I went 8-0 overall and 6-2 ATS this week. I think the line right now is Ole Miss -11. I really believe the game boils down to our ability to control Lagway. I think he will have some success early, but we will get after him and neutralize him. If Harris and Diggs ( I will believe it when I see it) play, it could possibly get ugly. Honestly, Ole Miss is the toughest opponent Ole Miss has this week. We have to show up ala UGA and not ala Kentucky. I think we have learned to take nothing for granted in the SEC, especially on the road. Give me Ole Miss to weather the early flood of intensity from the Gators and the crowd and pull away in the 2nd half. Ole Miss 34 Florida 17. LFG! HYDR! Beat UF!
ETA: 10. I debated adding this point, as I try to talk only about football on this site. I may or may not be punctual with my post next weekend. My daughter and SIL are closing in on their pregnancy coming to term, so I may be a first-time grandpa and otherwise engaged next weekend. Yes, my wife and I are PUMPED! Can't wait to welcome Sutton Thomas Smith to the world! Anyway, if I don't have the post out by Sunday evening, know that I have a very good reason and I will write a report ASAP. Thanks.
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