You get to host a game against the 12 seed (Boise?) and then you play the 4 seed (ACC or Big 12 who cares). Its just a free pass to the semis if you just play decent. So how do we get there? First, beat UF and MSU, obviously. Now lets assume that every time someone ahead of us loses, they fall behind us, which moves us up 1 spot. So here's how to make it happen-
1. Georgia over Tennessee. Tennessee goes behind us, Georgia stays behind us, and we're at 10.
2. Kansas over BYU. Vegas knows. We go to 9.
3. Ohio St hammers Indiana. The Committee should no longer feel the need to protect Indiana. We go to 8.
4. Minnesota over Penn State. Row the boat. We go 7.
5. USC over Notre Dame. Lincoln Riley earn your money. We go to 6.
6. Texas loses to A&M or in the SEC Championship Game or Alabama loses in the SEC Championship Game to Texas or Oregon convincingly over Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game.
So there are about 9 or 10 ways to get there, and in each case the team that we need to win is either favored or is not less than a 7 point dog. We're going to be a 7 pt favorite against Florida and a 20 point favorite against MSU. Everybody ahead of us has much more difficult games ahead of them.
The 6 seed would be great too, because if you win the 6/11 game, you get the 3 seed (ACC or Big 12 who cares).