The MLB Draft begins Sunday at 6 p.m. on ESPN and continues at 1 p.m. on Monday and Tuesday. The first two rounds including compensatory picks are on Sunday, rounds 3-10 on Monday and 11-20 on Tuesday.
Quick primer on how the bonus pool works: Each choice in the first 10 rounds of the Draft comes with an assigned value, with the total for a club's selections equaling what it can spend in those rounds without incurring a penalty. If a player taken in the top 10 rounds doesn't sign, his pick's value gets subtracted from his team's pool. Clubs near the top of the Draft often spend less than the assigned value for those choices and use the savings to offer more money to later selections.
Teams that exceed their bonus pool face a penalty. Clubs that outspend their allotment by 0-5 percent pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. At higher thresholds, clubs lose future picks: a first-rounder and a 75 percent tax for surpassing their pool by more than 5 and up to 10 percent; a first- and a second-rounder and a 100 percent tax for more than 10 and up to 15 percent; and two first-rounders and a 100 percent tax for more than 15 percent.
Here’s the slot value for each pick.
I don’t see Jackson Ferris being a possibility for showing up to school unless something goes way, way wrong. He wants to sign, didn’t even sign up for summer school and has made it clear he wants to go pro. I know his pitchability has been in question compared to other top arms, but he’s 96-97 from the left side. Someone is going to pay him. He may slip some, but I think a team will still find the money. He doesn’t have a crazy bonus request. I’ve heard some juice on him to the Brewers at 27. If it gets past that, I don’t know where he will go, but I expect him to go and sign.
Florida prep outfielder Roman Anthony is the name to watch tonight. If he is in Oxford this year, he likely steps in somewhere in the outfield, and he profiles as one hell of a college player if he signs. Anthony only has a few teams on him heavily enough to get his substantial 7-figure bonus ask. He’s interesting because he’s right-handed in the field and fast but not elite fast and his arm is above average but not elite. But he has real power from the left side. Teams can’t decide if he’s worth it or not.
The Red Sox and Blue Jays are the two clubs that have been the most public with their pursuit of him. Boston has the 41st pick with a slot of $1,905,500, which is right in the wheelhouse of what Anthony wants — touch shy of it but doable if the Red Sox want to go at him there and he’s still available. Toronto has picks at 23 and 60. I think 23 is too high, and 60 would be a spot they could save elsewhere and pay him if that option is available. And of course some other club could swoop in and grab him if they lose a target or just decide the value is worth it. This stuff isn’t in a vacuum. But I wouldn’t feel good until the Blue Jays pick at 60.
Rounds three through 10 are where I expect Dylan DeLucia, Hayden Dunhurst, Kevin Graham, Justin Bench and maybe Tim Elko to go. Graham, Dunhurst and Bench won’t be back, so you hope they get all they can and end up in good situations. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team take Elko on the back half of the top 10 rounds and then make him a senior sign discount (pay him a much smaller amount to be able to pay someone else overslept money).
If any of those elevate, it’s probably Dunhurst. Teams are worried about his ability to handle velocity offensively but the defense raises his floor.
DeLucia is the one question in this area, though I think he signs. There’s NIL for him if he returns, but when you are the College World Series MOP and a national champion, it’s hard to feel like you’re going to increase your profile. The argument would be getting NIL this year and then making the same or more money next summer. Likely the same. And closer to graduation. Ole Miss will make whatever pitch they can at him, but I’m leaning toward him moving on. I think he’s looking at the middle of the top 10 rounds and somewhere in that $300,000 range maybe? Again, just a guess, but that’s the baseline. If he falls past that, Ole Miss will have a real shot. Ole Miss would like teams to focus on the fact he’s a right-hander throwing 92 MPH. But it just takes one, and if DeLucia wants to go, he'll definitely get that shot.
Quick aside: Long Beach State right-hander Juaron Watts-Brown, the freshman All-American who is in the portal, is visiting Ole Miss sometime in the next couple days. It’s Ole Miss, Arkansas or Oklahoma State with Texas trying to get involved. Watts-Brown is being methodical and waiting until the Draft to see how his opportunities line up. Fun fact: Arkansas hasn't had a pitcher taken in the first two rounds since Ryne Stanek in 2013.
Ole Miss needs no surprises with incoming right-hander Grayson Saunier or JUCO transfer Ethan Lege. Saunier is a really dang good high school signee, and Lege is a real option to play third base next season if he’s on campus. He can play pretty much anywhere defensively. I expect both to show up to school, but there’s just enough worry to keep an eye out through tomorrow. Either would be a big blow considering it would take a club reaching to hit their pre-draft numbers. You don’t want to hear their name called at all.
I think Derek Diamond and Drew McDaniel will get picked on day three. I assume both will sign instead of transferring to another school. Both are in the portal, as you know.
The final portal stuff will start shaking out once this Draft is done. Ole Miss, and most other schools, will have a far better idea what they have to offer — NIL and scholarship.
Quick primer on how the bonus pool works: Each choice in the first 10 rounds of the Draft comes with an assigned value, with the total for a club's selections equaling what it can spend in those rounds without incurring a penalty. If a player taken in the top 10 rounds doesn't sign, his pick's value gets subtracted from his team's pool. Clubs near the top of the Draft often spend less than the assigned value for those choices and use the savings to offer more money to later selections.
Teams that exceed their bonus pool face a penalty. Clubs that outspend their allotment by 0-5 percent pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. At higher thresholds, clubs lose future picks: a first-rounder and a 75 percent tax for surpassing their pool by more than 5 and up to 10 percent; a first- and a second-rounder and a 100 percent tax for more than 10 and up to 15 percent; and two first-rounders and a 100 percent tax for more than 15 percent.
Here’s the slot value for each pick.
I don’t see Jackson Ferris being a possibility for showing up to school unless something goes way, way wrong. He wants to sign, didn’t even sign up for summer school and has made it clear he wants to go pro. I know his pitchability has been in question compared to other top arms, but he’s 96-97 from the left side. Someone is going to pay him. He may slip some, but I think a team will still find the money. He doesn’t have a crazy bonus request. I’ve heard some juice on him to the Brewers at 27. If it gets past that, I don’t know where he will go, but I expect him to go and sign.
Florida prep outfielder Roman Anthony is the name to watch tonight. If he is in Oxford this year, he likely steps in somewhere in the outfield, and he profiles as one hell of a college player if he signs. Anthony only has a few teams on him heavily enough to get his substantial 7-figure bonus ask. He’s interesting because he’s right-handed in the field and fast but not elite fast and his arm is above average but not elite. But he has real power from the left side. Teams can’t decide if he’s worth it or not.
The Red Sox and Blue Jays are the two clubs that have been the most public with their pursuit of him. Boston has the 41st pick with a slot of $1,905,500, which is right in the wheelhouse of what Anthony wants — touch shy of it but doable if the Red Sox want to go at him there and he’s still available. Toronto has picks at 23 and 60. I think 23 is too high, and 60 would be a spot they could save elsewhere and pay him if that option is available. And of course some other club could swoop in and grab him if they lose a target or just decide the value is worth it. This stuff isn’t in a vacuum. But I wouldn’t feel good until the Blue Jays pick at 60.
Rounds three through 10 are where I expect Dylan DeLucia, Hayden Dunhurst, Kevin Graham, Justin Bench and maybe Tim Elko to go. Graham, Dunhurst and Bench won’t be back, so you hope they get all they can and end up in good situations. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team take Elko on the back half of the top 10 rounds and then make him a senior sign discount (pay him a much smaller amount to be able to pay someone else overslept money).
If any of those elevate, it’s probably Dunhurst. Teams are worried about his ability to handle velocity offensively but the defense raises his floor.
DeLucia is the one question in this area, though I think he signs. There’s NIL for him if he returns, but when you are the College World Series MOP and a national champion, it’s hard to feel like you’re going to increase your profile. The argument would be getting NIL this year and then making the same or more money next summer. Likely the same. And closer to graduation. Ole Miss will make whatever pitch they can at him, but I’m leaning toward him moving on. I think he’s looking at the middle of the top 10 rounds and somewhere in that $300,000 range maybe? Again, just a guess, but that’s the baseline. If he falls past that, Ole Miss will have a real shot. Ole Miss would like teams to focus on the fact he’s a right-hander throwing 92 MPH. But it just takes one, and if DeLucia wants to go, he'll definitely get that shot.
Quick aside: Long Beach State right-hander Juaron Watts-Brown, the freshman All-American who is in the portal, is visiting Ole Miss sometime in the next couple days. It’s Ole Miss, Arkansas or Oklahoma State with Texas trying to get involved. Watts-Brown is being methodical and waiting until the Draft to see how his opportunities line up. Fun fact: Arkansas hasn't had a pitcher taken in the first two rounds since Ryne Stanek in 2013.
Ole Miss needs no surprises with incoming right-hander Grayson Saunier or JUCO transfer Ethan Lege. Saunier is a really dang good high school signee, and Lege is a real option to play third base next season if he’s on campus. He can play pretty much anywhere defensively. I expect both to show up to school, but there’s just enough worry to keep an eye out through tomorrow. Either would be a big blow considering it would take a club reaching to hit their pre-draft numbers. You don’t want to hear their name called at all.
I think Derek Diamond and Drew McDaniel will get picked on day three. I assume both will sign instead of transferring to another school. Both are in the portal, as you know.
The final portal stuff will start shaking out once this Draft is done. Ole Miss, and most other schools, will have a far better idea what they have to offer — NIL and scholarship.
Last edited:
