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Week 10 thoughts from a retired (for now) coach

Ole Miss catapulted itself back into the CPF picture with a dominating 28-10 rain-soaked victory over #3 ranked Georgia in front of a loud, raucous, record crowd of 68,126 at VHS. It was an epic sight for this lifelong Rebel fan/student/graduate to witness and absorb. As I watched the students storm the field, both times, I immediately reflected on my own time at Ole Miss and recalled another outstanding defensive effort that resulted in us students storming the field (1992 vs MSU). In this post, I will reflect on my post from earlier in the week (Difference Makers vs UGA from a retired for now coach) and evaluate how we did in those areas that I thought were essential for victory. The earlier post will be in italics and the commentary of the results in Bold.

1. Pressure, pressure. pressure. We have first-hand knowledge of how lethal Carson Beck can be when he has a clean pocket and nothing to think about except where Bowers, McConkey, or Thomas are. Well, all 3 of those security blankets are gone and we have plenty of tape on how Beck reacts when he is put under a little pressure. I hope that we come and get him early and often and make his eyes focus more on what is happening on the LOS and less on what is happening down the field. Stat to watch: 5+ sacks by Ole Miss will result in at least one pick. A pick 6 (great ball play BTW, at least the Dem VP thinks so) would be icing on the cake. If Beck turns it over twice (or more), we win.

RESULT: We gave Beck and the UGA offense fits all day long. JJ, Harris, and Nolen dominated the interior, cutting Princely U, Ivey, and Perkins loose to terrorize Beck from the edge. Beck is a great QB as long as he doesn't have to deal with pressure. He has proven to not be nearly as effective when under duress and without Bowers and McConkey. We had exactly 5 sacks, 5 pass deflections (2 by Ivey), and Beck turned it over twice, an INT and a fumble.

2. Protect, protect, protect. The converse of point 1 must be present for us to have a chance. CKS will have those guys amped up about being disrespected and everyone is against them. I fully expect them to go for broke on the 1st series to force a big play (sack and/or turnover) to set the tone for the game. Why do I say that? Our MO is to take the ball and score on the 1st drive. LSU took the ball to try and break this, and, after forcing them to a 3 and out, the big drop on our first play was a result.
We must run the ball enough to keep their elite rushers from ignoring PA fakes and pinning their ears back. I would like to see some creativity in the screen game to make their DL think, thereby slowing their pursuit. I also would like to see quick slants/glance routes (automatic reads) to where the pressure comes from so JD can get the ball out quickly. Stat to watch: If Georgia sacks/hits, and hurries JD more than 8 times, we are in trouble.


RESULT: After allowing JD to be hit on the game's 1st 2 plays, which resulted in JD being injured. and then pressured on the 3rd, which resulted in an INT, the OL responded as a unit and only allowed a couple of hurries the rest of the game. It was probably the OL's best performance of the season. UGA just couldn't get to JD (or Simmons) which ultimately resulted in our ability to hit 9 chunk plays of at least 20 yards in the game.

3. He who runs, wins. We have to be able to figure out how to run the ball enough to make UGA respect it. I recall the MSU game in 2014 when Bo was on one leg and our offense was limited by several other injuries. To his and his staff's credit, CHF was very creative in that particular game with the running game, having just enough success to keep MSU honest. They let it all hang out in that game, emptying the playbook to win. We must take a similar approach.
Conversely, I like how our DL matches up with UGA's OL. They won't tower over us like last year. Finally, we must maintain lane discipline as we pursue up and down the LOS to keep Etienne and Frasier from slashing off big chunks of yardage and making Beck beat us. Stat to watch: We need to average 5 yards per rush and have at least 2 runs of 10+ yards. Bonus stat to watch: At least 10 targets in the short middle of the field to the TEs/RBs. This will slow their rush.


RESULT: The stat sheet says we rushed for 134 yards on 36 carries. That stat is somewhat misleading, as 48 of those yards came on successive plays by Watkins and Dart on the drive to increase the lead to 25-10 in the 4th. We did have a rushing TD (UBIV, imagine that!) and we did have 5 runs for at least 9 yards, so...we did run it enough. Our DL held UGA to 59 rushing yards on 33 attempts, allowing only one rush attempt of over 9 yards. The bonus stat: We had at least 7 attempts in the middle of the field and we did attempt a screen to UBIV in the middle of the field.

4. Focused, not frenetic. We must have a total mental focus that we haven't seen this team have this year, but it must be measured. I am again going to reference 2014, this time against Alabama. We were locked in mentally that day and didn't blink for even a second when the breaks went against us early, culminating with Alabama getting the garbage TD right before the half to go up 14-3. UGA is going to bring the juice early to try and hit us in the mouth and put us on our heels, players, coaches, and fans alike. We need to burn our effort and intensity more like oil and less like gasoline. Stat to watch: Focused teams play even-keeled and make few dumb mistakes. Frenetic teams make spontaneous mistakes that are costly, The team that has the fewest dumb penalties (Personal foul, targeting, facemask, unsportsmanlike, etc) wins.

RESULT: This team was locked in like I have not witnessed them to be this season. UGA brought the juice early and forced a TO that they turned into 7 points. This team didn't blink, even with JD hobbling to the locker room with what appeared to be a serious lower leg injury. Enter the MVP of the game, IMHO, Austin Simmons. He calmly led us down the field, completing 5-6 passes for 65 yards, including converting on 3rd down and 4th down in the drive. The score to tie the game at 7-7 was an indescribable momentum shift. It changed the entire course of the game. Finally, we played our cleanest game all year, only being penalized 3 times for 30 yards, with 20 of them coming on back-to-back plays in the 4th.

5. Attitude is EVERYTHING! The conditions are most likely going to be less than ideal on Saturday. Both teams will have to deal with it. Like everything else in life, the 10/90 rule will apply here. 10 percent what happens, 90 percent how we react.
When I coached, I usually made our guys practice in inclement weather, except for lightning, of course. I wanted my guys to know what that misery was like before it occurred at the showdown. Further, if I knew it was going to rain on Friday night, I have been known to turn the sprinklers on the practice field to prep.
In 2022, it was unusually cold at Arkansas. The weather, coupled with CLK's AU flirtation and all the distractions that accompanied that circus, played a direct role in us getting steamrolled. The bottom line, we have to embrace the weather mentally and believe that the weather is an advantage for us. Stat to watch: penalties, incorrect personnel groupings, missed assignments, and noticeable lack of effort will all be things to identify who wants it more. Oh yeah, the team that has the most "slip downs" will most likely be the team that is having the most difficulty dealing with the mental aspect of the weather conditions.


RESULT: The weather didn't seem to bother us at all. I only witnessed one bad throw by JD that seemed to be the result of a wet ball, and he is on tape before the play asking for a dry ball and the official not giving him one. Not sure about that, as the ball had not been spotted yet. I don't know if the weather affected UGA/Beck or not, but it did seem to affect their MOJO to some degree. I believe the crowd had more to do with that than anything though (more on that in a minute).

6. Penalties will punish. The officiating normally plays a role in games of this magnitude. It just is what it is. While I have softened in my previous belief that there is a deep-seated, SEC office-driven conspiracy against us over the years, I do believe that bias, whether intentional or not, is there.
I have to point no further than the non-call of targeting on LSU (and letting the offender watch the replay over the referee's shoulder!) and the fact that they threw the ball 51 times against the nation's best DL and had 1 holding call, for evidence.
The bottom line is we have to not worry about the stripe shirts and just play hard every snap. Stat to watch: Penalties will be huge in this game, like every other. If we have less than 50 yards in penalties, with no more than 2 holding calls, we win. Bonus stat regarding penalties: Which team gets the majority of the "on the field" calls on reviewed plays?


RESULT: I wish we could have this officiating crew assigned to us every game. They let the teams play, for the most part. I did see (as did everyone in VHS and on TV) a couple of missed holding calls on UGA against Princely U and Perkins. UGA had 4 penalties for 20 yards( 10 of those on back-to-back plays) and We had 3-30 with all assessed penalty yardage being against our defense. I can't remember a game where there were no stoppages for review. I don't remember there being one Saturday. Added comment: Ken Williamson's crew was assigned to the "more important" LSU-Alabama game. Let's just say LSU got some karma for all the benefits they received from that crew in our game. That is all I will say. Watch the tape.

7. Turnover Battle. The expected weather conditions will make the protection of the football even more of a premium than in ideal conditions. We have to win the turnover battle. Stat to watch: 3 or more TOs by either team most likely means defeat.

RESULT: UGA turned it over 3 times, 2 fumbles lost, and an INT. They also had at least 2 other fumbles that they got back. Other than the INT on the 3rd play of the game, we did a great job of taking care of the football in less-than-ideal conditions. Result: we win.

8. Hold em, or fold em. Both teams are coached by men who are considered top 10-12 in the country in college football. Both cut their teeth under CNS, and both are known for being willing to roll the dice and go for broke.
CKS is known for scheming the other team and for getting his guys to believe they are being disrespected, even though they haven't lost to anyone except Alabama in 4 years. We have to match their intensity early, counter their haymakers with a solid shot to the mouth, make them doubt, and keep the pressure on like a medic trying to stop a sucking chest wound.
CLK is known for his ability to scheme up mismatches and is regarded as a superior playcaller. In my time of watching him closely, I have seen a tendency to "pucker" a little in big games that he really wants. Translation: he usually has a junior high trick play that he has schemed up to obtain a cheap big play/TD. I hope that he embraces this opportunity, leaves the trick plays at the playground, and accepts the FACT that he cannot try to win the game as the play-caller. Players, not plays. The bottom line, we must keep in mind that field position is magnified in weather games. Stat to watch: How many punts vs. 4th down attempts do we have?


RESULT: CLK made a big boy call on 4th down in the 1st quarter with his backup QB in the game, with Simmons ( did I say he was the MVP yet) converting a short crossing route over the middle on 4th and 2 to keep the game-tying, momentum-changing, TD drive alive. A stop by UGA there might send the whole game in a different direction.

9. Punctual, Engaged, and Energetic. This is our role. I refer to the legendary 2003 game against LSU to highlight this point. The stadium rocked that day like nothing I have EVER seen anywhere, before or since (yes, I was at 2014 Alabama). I thought Travis Johnson's pick 6 was going to smash the sound barrier. Here is what I remember:
A. VHS was full an hour before the kick.
B. Everyone was standing, yelling, cheering, etc. THE WHOLE GAME.
C. The energy in the stadium was INCREDIBLE! The players fed off of that energy, playing above their heads that day and having a chance to defeat the eventual National Champions, even while not playing their best game (3 TOs and 2 missed FGs).
We have to set the tone as to the environment that UGA is walking into on Saturday. Imagine the reaction, from both teams, if VHS is full, popping, and energized...in the rain...during pregame warmups. Why wait to get to the stadium? We are going to get wet ANYWAY. Get there early! Tell all you know that are going to get there early. Bottom line: Every snap UGA takes must be contested. Every UGA audible must be difficult to communicate. Every positive play we make must be met with overwhelming energy. Stat to watch: How many false start/delay of game penalties does UGA have?


RESULT: A: check. The stadium was as full as I have seen it in a long time an hour before the kick. (I got there 90 minutes prior and there was an impressive number there then too)
B. check. I sat at halftime. Other than that, if I wanted to see, I had to stand. I hollered every play UGA had the ball. I wasn't alone in my section.
C. check. Best energy level I have seen at VHS in a long time, possibly ever. I was sober as a judge Saturday, and can neither confirm nor deny that my judgment of the energy in the stadium in 2003 LSU may have been influenced by inebriation. That said, the environment was such that it drew respectful praise from UGA CKS.
D. UGA had to call TO twice due to not being able to communicate and their OTs could not get off the ball quick enough to slow Princely U, Ivey, and Perkins. The impact of added stress of a rowdy crowd cannot be measured accurately.


10. Luck of the...Rebels. We need to get the breaks, plain and simple. I always told my guys that luck followed effort. There is a lot of truth to that statement, but football is played with a prolate spheroid shaped ball. It bounces funny. We need to get the breaks. Stat to watch: Which team makes a big play (turnover) in special teams?

RESULT: I have always said that luck follows effort. We caught the breaks Saturday, other than the facemask on the fumble scramble in the 4th. Our effort was off the charts on Saturday. The luck that followed was a result.

Prediction: I said in the preseason that I agreed with Neal in that I could not unsee what happened in Athens last year. I expounded on that point, stating that UGA can't unsee it either and will have difficulty giving us the full respect that they should as a result. I said then that we would win, and I am not backing up now. Ole Miss wins a tough, intense game, staying in the hunt for the CFP.
Ole Miss 27
UGA 23

I will be there, rain or no rain. I will be loud, I will be energetic. I will be engaged. LFG! HYDR! BEAT UGA!


RESULT: 28-10 Ole Miss win. I have thought since I made my preseason predictions that we would beat UGA. I did not think we would lose the 2 games we have lost. I agree with what Neal wrote about the early adversity possibly being necessary to achieve what happened Saturday. I thought about that on the ride home. If we beat UK and LSU, we probably don't play with our hair on fire like we did Saturday. I did predict a loss either before (Arkansas) or after (Florida) the UGA game. I stated after the Oklahoma game that this was not a playoff team, at that time. This team, focused, executing, flying around, and playing with passion, is possibly the best team in the country. If the OL continues to improve and we don't have any serious injuries, we should win out and make the CFP, where we will be a dangerous team that nobody wants to play.
We need to enjoy this win for a couple of days, get back to Earth, re-establish our focus, and treat UF and MSU like we obviously treated Arky and UGA, like playoff games. Everything we want is in front of us. We, the team in the mirror, are the best chance we have of taking a loss. Hopefully, the week off will help get some players (Harris, Dart, JJ, etc) healthy so we can go to The Swamp, where we haven't won since 2008, and get the W. Great win! LFG! HYDR! Beat UF!

Texas Resume

If Texas becomes a 2 loss team by losing to A&M, I would contend that they would have the weakest resume of anyone.

They have or will have beaten MSU, OK, KY, Ark, Fla, and Vandy. They beat Michigan which will probably end up 6-6 after losing to Ohio Stare.

I don't see how they would win any tiebreaker with the other 2 loss teams.

Obviously, if they win out, they are probably in by winning the conference and going to the SEC Championship game.

They have AR, KY, and A&M left. Shouldn't we be rooting against them?

I was so wrong about playoffs.

I said it was pointless to have all these extra games once you got outside the top 8 in playoffs. I thought it abused the players. And what chance did those teams have of making a run. Look at all the teams who are backed into a corner with two loses but play their hearts out because they are still in it. The option for the players who might be the 1st much in the NFL making meaningful money and staying an extra year. This is great. There are going to be great teams playing in exhibition bowl games. Don’t understand how Big 12 still gets a slot. Don’t understand how Boise State gets Deserves to be there where is the win? Most importantly **** BRIAN KELLY! Never rooted for Alabama so hard. If we take care of business I am getting a lot of my coast friends popcorn for the Playoffs.

First we have to win out, and get in the playoffs (I don't take that for granted)...

but because of our elite Defensive front, there isn't a team/coach I would rather have in a playoff. The odds are still long on any one team (lot of parity) , but I wouldn't trade this roster and coaching staff for any other at this point.

As Kiffin mentioned, also more offensive fire power getting healthy

This Week's Viewing Guide

Obvious rooting interest in bold.

Arguable rooting interest can be discussed.

Week 12

Ohio State (-30) @
Northwestern
11am | BTN

Texas (-13.5) @
Arkansas
11am | ABC

Clemson (-10) @
Pittsburgh
11am | ESPN

Utah @
Colorado (-10)
11am | FOX

Mercer @
Alabama (no line)
1pm | SECN+

Penn State (-28.5) @
Purdue
2:30pm | CBS

Virginia @
(10) Notre Dame (-23)
2:30pm | NBC

Boston College @
(13) SMU (-17)
2:30pm | ESPN

LSU -4.5 @
Florida
2:30pm | ABC

Louisville (-22.5) @
Stanford
2:30pm | ACCN

Mizzou @
South Carolina
3:15pm | SECN

Boise State (-13.5) @
San Jose State
6pm | CBSSN

Arizona State @
Kansas State (-8.5)
6pm | ESPN

Oregon (-14.5) @
Wisconsin
6:30pm | NBC

Tennessee @
Georgia (-9)
6:30pm | ABC

New Mexico State @
Texas aTm (-39.5)
6:45pm | SECN

Cincinnati @
Iowa State (-9)
7pm | FOX

Washington State (-13.5) @
New Mexico
8:30pm | FS1
Kansas @
BYU (-3.5)
9:15pm | ESPN

Other non-top 25 games of interest:

Troy @
Georgia Southern (-8)
3pm | ESPN+

Akron @
Northern Illinois (-15.5)
6pm CBSSN

Wake Forest @
North Carolina (-11.5)
7pm | ACCN


Notes:

- I think we would rather have Georgia win, but a loss also eliminates them from the Playoff. If they win big against Tennessee, there could be lazy pundits that argue they should jump back up.

- Boise State continuing to win ensures the committee doesn't try to get cute and give two at-larges to G5.

- Georgia Southern having a sneaky good season and will probably compete for the Sun Belt.

- Oregon losing to Wisconsin could have a negative effect, as that would boost Alabama's non-conference win in Madison.

- Northern Illinois is 2-3 in the MAC. Would be great for that loss to continue to look worse and worse for Notre Dame.

Feel free to discuss.

SEC Championship Game

Just say that everything from here on out for the top teams goes chalk. The standings will be

Texas 7-1 (they're in)
A&M 6-2
Tenn 6-2
UGA 6-2
OM 6-2
Bama 6-2
LSU 6-2

Tiebreakers-

1. Head-to-head among the tied teams- N/A since not everybody has played everybody
2. Record vs. common opponents among the tied teams- N/A since everybody doesn't have the same common opponents
3. Record against the highest-place opponent among the tied teams- N/A since not everybody has played Texas
4. Combined winning percentage of all conference opponents for each team- TBD as other games matter. Probably Bama or UGA

Think about this- If you are a 6-2 team and you make it to the SEC Championship Game and win, then you are a #1 or #2 seed and you get a bye. If you are a 6-2 team and you make it to the SEC Championship Game and lose, then you are a 3 loss team and you may be out of the CFP.

One aspect I haven’t really heard many talk about.. (re: Simmons/2025)

Preface, I didn’t get to listen to a lot of the postgame show, so it may have been discussed.

But, in all reality, that early Simmons drive probably cost the collective more money in 2025, as programs saw the sky high ceiling and the future stardom surrounding Simmons now. Obviously the secret is out.

With that said, Kiffin/staff and the collective are probably in for a lot more kids when they can point to that and pitch playing with him. Heck, it could possibly even out with players taking a discount knowing they’re going to have success with him.

It can be a pretty ehh recruiting pitch when you show kids tape of your QB2 throwing against Furman, but showing what he did on that drive against Georgia will play well.

Just a thought as I watched that all play out yesterday.

More on the Substitute Tiger Mascot at LSU with OM Mention....

Certainly interesting and informative TV piece..

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