We will officially turn the page to the 2023 football season this week and baseball will go to the backburner barring something pertinent, but I noticed something about Ethan Lege's stats when I was checking out some advanced metrics from the 2023 season.
Lege played in six games for Nicholls in 2020 and then two seasons at Delgado Community College. It's pretty common for a player to see major improvement in year two at the Division I level. It's the norm as opposed to instant big seasons.
On a basic level, Lege had a middling to below average season with the Rebels. He hit .243 with a .691 OPS -- .332 OBP and .359 slugging percentage. He hit 10 doubles, a triple and three home runs in 211 plate appearances. He did lead the team with 14 hit by pitches. Lege walked 12 times and then what caught my eye -- only 16 strikeouts.
Lege's K rate was seven percent which easily led the team. Jacob Gonzalez was at 11 percent, and Calvin Harris and Kemp Alderman were at 16 percent. The lack of hits and power led to the worst runs-created average on the team at minus eight from the average Division I player. It wasn't a good season.
But between the K rate and the hit by pitches, which aren't completely random, there's the foundation for quality at-bats which could turn into better numbers if he shows a little more patience when required. Lege is very good at contact and that was a detriment at times. He can be more selective and that should be an emphasis. Trust his approach and hit pitches in better spots to drive them. The BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was also grossly low at .247. College average is over .300, so that on the surface indicates a lot of bad luck that could turnaround next season. A decade ago I took similar numbers and predicted a breakout for Austin Anderson in 2014. However, the thing that clouds it a touch is too often he had weak contact which will also lower a BABIP. So, while unlucky, it comes back to trusting himself deeper in counts.
Lege hit a ground ball or popped up 56 percent of the time. It was the highest pop-up percentage among regulars. I don't mind a high ground-ball percentage. That can still be hard contact, but the overall numbers and my eyes indicate too many roll-overs. Calvin Harris hit ground balls seven percentage points higher of a time than Lege, but his pop-up percentage was seven times lower. -- 15 percent to 2 percent.
Lege started conference play 2-for-19 and then had a 1-for-18 stretch a couple weeks later. He hit the ball better after the midway point, and there were some signs of increased comfort. His home run percentage on fly balls was only three percent, also very, very low. The bat control gives him chance, and I absolutely think a second year in general will help him There are stats that say he could be a breakout possibility. He needs to calm down though. It's not a crime to see some pitches and drive the third, fourth, fifth or sixth pitch of an at-bat.
There's not enough to write a full thing on this, but just food for thought on Ethan Groff. These are selective stats, and a best-case scenario, but frankly Ole Miss needs a couple of those for next season to go well. Here are some stats for Groff from 2023 and next to it is the same stat for Gonzalez.
Ground ball percentage
Groff 37, Gonzo 38.1
Line Drive percentage
17.3, 18.2
Fly ball percentage
45.7, 43.6
Pop-up percentage
7.5, 7.2
K percentage
14.5, 11.1
BB percentage
11.7, 13.8
The biggest difference between the two is Gonzalez turned fly balls into power and Groff didn't do that. Also, their basic conference stats differ by a wide margin. Gonzo's OPS was more than 400 points higher. Groff did steal 20 bases on the season. I'm not predicting Gonzalez next season by any metric, but I do wonder if Groff stays fully if he can do some much better things in year two. His overall profile is pretty good, but he's not squaring up the ball enough.
Anyway, no hot take or anything. Just something I noticed. Carry on.
Lege played in six games for Nicholls in 2020 and then two seasons at Delgado Community College. It's pretty common for a player to see major improvement in year two at the Division I level. It's the norm as opposed to instant big seasons.
On a basic level, Lege had a middling to below average season with the Rebels. He hit .243 with a .691 OPS -- .332 OBP and .359 slugging percentage. He hit 10 doubles, a triple and three home runs in 211 plate appearances. He did lead the team with 14 hit by pitches. Lege walked 12 times and then what caught my eye -- only 16 strikeouts.
Lege's K rate was seven percent which easily led the team. Jacob Gonzalez was at 11 percent, and Calvin Harris and Kemp Alderman were at 16 percent. The lack of hits and power led to the worst runs-created average on the team at minus eight from the average Division I player. It wasn't a good season.
But between the K rate and the hit by pitches, which aren't completely random, there's the foundation for quality at-bats which could turn into better numbers if he shows a little more patience when required. Lege is very good at contact and that was a detriment at times. He can be more selective and that should be an emphasis. Trust his approach and hit pitches in better spots to drive them. The BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was also grossly low at .247. College average is over .300, so that on the surface indicates a lot of bad luck that could turnaround next season. A decade ago I took similar numbers and predicted a breakout for Austin Anderson in 2014. However, the thing that clouds it a touch is too often he had weak contact which will also lower a BABIP. So, while unlucky, it comes back to trusting himself deeper in counts.
Lege hit a ground ball or popped up 56 percent of the time. It was the highest pop-up percentage among regulars. I don't mind a high ground-ball percentage. That can still be hard contact, but the overall numbers and my eyes indicate too many roll-overs. Calvin Harris hit ground balls seven percentage points higher of a time than Lege, but his pop-up percentage was seven times lower. -- 15 percent to 2 percent.
Lege started conference play 2-for-19 and then had a 1-for-18 stretch a couple weeks later. He hit the ball better after the midway point, and there were some signs of increased comfort. His home run percentage on fly balls was only three percent, also very, very low. The bat control gives him chance, and I absolutely think a second year in general will help him There are stats that say he could be a breakout possibility. He needs to calm down though. It's not a crime to see some pitches and drive the third, fourth, fifth or sixth pitch of an at-bat.
There's not enough to write a full thing on this, but just food for thought on Ethan Groff. These are selective stats, and a best-case scenario, but frankly Ole Miss needs a couple of those for next season to go well. Here are some stats for Groff from 2023 and next to it is the same stat for Gonzalez.
Ground ball percentage
Groff 37, Gonzo 38.1
Line Drive percentage
17.3, 18.2
Fly ball percentage
45.7, 43.6
Pop-up percentage
7.5, 7.2
K percentage
14.5, 11.1
BB percentage
11.7, 13.8
The biggest difference between the two is Gonzalez turned fly balls into power and Groff didn't do that. Also, their basic conference stats differ by a wide margin. Gonzo's OPS was more than 400 points higher. Groff did steal 20 bases on the season. I'm not predicting Gonzalez next season by any metric, but I do wonder if Groff stays fully if he can do some much better things in year two. His overall profile is pretty good, but he's not squaring up the ball enough.
Anyway, no hot take or anything. Just something I noticed. Carry on.
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